According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates moved lower last week from the week before. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. But while rates dipped, the improvement wasn’t enough to boost demand for mortgage applications, which were mostly flat from one week earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says the market is improving but gradually. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as home buyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and more listings to hit the market,” Kan said. “Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Each month, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases an outlook covering what they see ahead for the housing market and overall economy. In March, the group says they expect the housing market will continue to thaw after a slow 2023. Home sales will trend higher and so will the number of available listings. The group sees affordability constraints continuing, though, with mortgage rates remaining elevated due to inflation and a strong job market. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast, as markets continue to evolve their expectations of future monetary policy,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says. “Still, while we don’t expect a dramatic surge in the supply of homes for sale, we do anticipate an increase in the level of market transactions relative to 2023 – even if mortgage rates remain elevated.” (source)

New home sales typically account for just 10 percent of total home sales. But with the inventory of available older homes still lower than normal, the new home market has become more active. In fact, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, sales of newly built single-family homes are now 5.9 percent higher than they were at the same time last year. The improvement comes at a time when home builders are expressing rising confidence in the market and residential construction is rising. But while the numbers are mostly positive, sales in February did fall short of economists’ expectations, with month-over-month results showing sales 0.3 percent below January’s revised totals. Also, the median sales price of new houses sold in February was $400,500. The average sales price was $485,000. (source)

Spring has arrived and so has home selling season, which means now’s the time to start getting your house ready if you’re hoping to get it on the market at the hottest time of the year. According to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, mid-April is the time of year when sellers see the most buyers and the fastest sales. The same analysis found most homeowners need at least a month to get their house ready to show. That makes now the perfect time to get started. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says sellers should start preparing. “Spring is generally the high season for home sales, and buyers tend to be more plentiful earlier in the year,” Hale said. “Because listing a home is a process, sellers should start preparing now so they can list their home at a time when conditions are likely to be most favorable, giving them the best chance of selling their home quickly and at a competitive price.” (source)

Sales of previously owned homes rose 9.5 percent in February, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors. The improvement was the largest month-over-month gain since February 2023 and included increases in the West, South, and Midwest. The Northeast was unchanged from the previous month. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the growing inventory of homes for sale is helping push sales higher. “Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” Yun said. “Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.” The supply of homes has been growing. In fact, total housing inventory at the end of February was up 5.9 percent from January and is now 10.3 percent higher than at the same time last year. That’s good news for prospective buyers, as it helps moderate price increases and provides more options to choose from when shopping for a home to buy. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates moved higher last week from one week earlier. Rates were up across most loan categories including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. The increase led to a 1 percent drop in the number of borrowers seeking loans to buy homes. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says demand for loans has been sensitive to rate fluctuations. “Mortgage applications continued to show sensitivity to rate movements, and both purchase and refinance activity decreased over the week,” Kan said. “With housing supply low and prices high, the average loan size of purchase applications increased to the highest level since May 2022.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

The market for newly built homes continues to benefit from the lack of older homes available for sale. Existing home inventory is lower than normal and buyers are increasingly looking at new construction as an alternative. This has been good for the new home market. It’s also led to a spike in construction activity. In fact, according to newly released numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of new homes that began construction in February was 10.7 percent higher than the month before and almost 6 percent higher than last year at the same time. Similarly, the number of new homes completed in February rose almost 20 percent. The news comes at the same time home builders are expressing rising confidence in the market, according to recent survey results – a sign that builders see more gains on the way. (source)

Home builders can be a pretty good gauge of where the housing market is headed. Because their business depends on knowing where and when buyers are looking to purchase a home, they’re generally good at reading market dynamics. That’s why the National Association of Home Builders keeps a monthly measure of builder confidence. If builders are optimistic and building more homes, it’s likely the overall market is in good shape. The NAHB’s Housing Market Index measures builder confidence on a scale where any number above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. In March, it rose three points to 51. It was the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the first time since last July that it’s been over 50. Carl Harris, NAHB’s chairman, says buyers are ready to move. “Buyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year,” Harris said. (source)

Calculating whether or not you can afford to buy a house means examining your budget, spending habits, and how a mortgage payment might fit into your monthly expenses. Ultimately, it’s a calculation only you can make. After all, you’re the best judge of how much you’re comfortable spending. Still, there are several ways to get a sense of overall affordability conditions and how expensive it is to buy in today’s market. The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index is among them and, according to the most recent numbers, the typical family can still afford to buy a median-priced home. The index – scored on a scale where any number above 100 indicates that a family with a median income can afford to buy – is currently at 101.9 nationally. That means, though conditions are tight, they’re still manageable. But like anything else, where you’re buying has a significant impact. For example, the index component measuring affordability in the Midwest scored 143.9, well above 100. The West, on the other hand, has a score of 75.5. The South and Northeast both scored just over 100. (source)

The inventory of homes for sale has been lower than normal for years now. There are a number of reasons for this. One factor keeping inventory low is the number of homeowners who refinanced their loan when mortgage rates were at historic lows and, having locked in a low rate, are reluctant to move. But according to newly released numbers, there may be evidence that the “rate lock” that made potential sellers hesitant to list their homes has begun to ease. How so? Well, new listings of existing homes rose 21 percent in February compared to year-before levels and were up 20 percent from the month before. The improvement is a sign sellers are more active heading into this spring’s sales season. The gains have been significant and widespread. In fact, inventory was up in each of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, with the strongest increases seen in Texas and Florida. Overall, the inventory of homes for sale is now up 12 percent nationally compared to last year. This is encouraging news and evidence that homeowners may be increasingly willing to make a move. (source)