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Recent worries about a potential recession have made news but, according to Freddie Mac’s newest housing market forecast, home buyers and sellers shouldn’t be too concerned. That’s because, there are a number of positive trends that will help keep the real estate market healthy through the fall and into 2020. For one, the job market continues to show strength. And that, combined with mortgage rates hovering at three-year lows, will likely keep things moving in the right direction. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says he expects the fall market to continue to improve. “Despite fears of an economic slowdown, the U.S. labor market stands firm,†Khater said. “Specifically, jobless claims are near historic lows. This strong labor market, along with mortgage rates at three-year lows and consumer confidence holding strong, will set the stage for continued improvement in the housing market heading into fall.†In short, despite news of trade tensions and economic uncertainty, the housing market looks steady and poised for continued gains. More here.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming loan balances fell to their lowest level since November 2016 last week. Rates for jumbo loans, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans were relatively flat. But though rates remain favorable, it hasn’t resulted in increased demand from borrowers. In fact, refinance activity actually declined last week, falling 4 percent. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China has led to market volatility that may be keeping some potential borrowers on the sidelines. “Purchase applications increased 1 percent last week and were 5 percent higher than a year ago,†Kan said. “Consumers continue to act on these lower rates, but the volatility in the market is likely leading some borrowers to pause refinancing and buying decisions.†The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

When you think about where Americans move once they’ve retired, you probably think of sunny cities in states like Florida or Arizona. But, according to one recent analysis, there are some less obvious spots that should be added to the list of places retirees consider when thinking about where they’d like to spend their golden years. That’s because cities like Plano, Pittsburgh, Lexington, Louisville, and Fort Wayne were included among the top 10 best places to retire – along with sun-drenched cities like St. Petersburg, Mesa, Chandler, and Las Vegas. So how did cities in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Indiana make a list of retirement destinations? In a word, affordability. The analysis looked at things like taxes, health insurance rates, and housing to determine where costs were low and you could stretch your retirement savings the furthest. For example, the number one city named was Henderson, Nevada, where the annual cost of living is just $20,672 and social security and pensions aren’t taxed. More here.

Money is an issue when deciding whether it’s a good time for you to buy a house. Your savings, income, and monthly budget will all play a role in determining what you can and can’t afford. But your personal finances aren’t the only variable dictating how much house you can buy. Current market conditions will also be a factor. Whether home prices and mortgage rates are up or down will affect how far your money will go. That’s why recent data from Black Knight Financial is encouraging for anyone considering buying a home. According to their newest Home Price Index, affordability conditions eased in July, marking the first improvement in 16 months. In short, the gains mean prospective home buyers will get more house for their money. One reason conditions have improved is declining mortgage rates. After spiking at the end of last year, interest rates have steadily declined and are now, once again, hovering just above historic lows. The other end of the affordability equation is home prices. Prices, though still rising, are increasing at a slower rate than before. In fact, Black Knight’s data shows prices up 3.9 percent from last year. For comparison, annual home price growth was at 6.75 percent in February 2018. More here.

When an offer to buy a house is accepted, a contract is signed. After that, the home’s sale is considered pending until the buying process is completed and all of the paperwork is done. Because contract signings precede closings, pending sales can be a good indicator of future home sales. That’s why the National Association of Realtors measures them on a monthly basis. In July, their Pending Home Sales report shows contract signings were down from the month before but remain virtually unchanged from where they were last year at the same time. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says there are a couple of reasons favorable conditions have yet to result in increasing sales. “Super-low mortgage rates have not yet consistently pulled buyers back into the market,” Yun said. “Economic uncertainty is no doubt holding back some potential demand, but what is desperately needed is more supply of moderately priced homes.” Yun believes that an increase in new home construction is necessary to help boost, not just the housing market and home sales, but the overall economy as well.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates were up last week, marking the first increase in more than a month. Rates rose for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with both conforming and jumbo balances, while loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration saw the only week-over-week decline. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said mortgage rates haven’t held much sway with summer buyers one way or the other. “Purchase applications were still up around 2 percent year-over-year, but the drop in rates this summer has not yet led to a significant boost in activity,†Kan said. “Uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook and low supply continue to be the predominant headwinds for prospective home buyers.†Also in the report, refinance activity fell after surging in recent weeks. Increasing rates caused an 8 percent decline from the week before. Despite the drop, however, refinance demand is now 167 percent higher than at the same time last year. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications.

Home prices have been rising for years now. But, according to new data, they may be finally starting to level off. The numbers, from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices – which is considered to be the leading measure of U.S. home prices – shows price increases have continued to slow. Nationally, S&P’s most recent reading has them up just 3.1 percent year-over-year. Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says that may be a sustainable level. “Home price gains continue to trend down, but may be leveling off to a sustainable level,†Murphy said. “While housing has clearly cooled off from 2018, home price gains in most cities remain positive in low single digits. Therefore, it is likely that current rates of change will generally be sustained barring an economic downturn.†And though prices are still rising, a 3 percent year-over-year increase is actually below normal. In fact, according to an analysis from the National Association of Realtors, the average yearly increase from 1968 through 2004 was 6.4 percent. More here.

When the housing market crashed and home prices fell, many homeowners found themselves underwater. The subsequent crisis meant hundreds of thousands of homeowners owed more on their mortgage than their homes were worth. That caused the number of foreclosures, vacancies, and abandoned properties to spike. Fortunately, though, home prices began to rebound in 2012 and helped reverse those losses. Now, after many years of increasing home values, a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions shows just how significant that reversal has been. According to their Q3 2019 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report, there are currently 1.5 million vacant single-family homes and condos in the country. That represents just 1.6 percent of all homes. Todd Teta, ATTOM’s chief product officer, says that’s a dramatic improvement. “The blight of vacant, decaying properties facing foreclosure has declined dramatically across the United States – another good-news offshoot of the housing boom that’s gone on for eight years,†Teta said. “A handful of areas still face notable problems with homes abandoned by owners after they get hit with foreclosure claims. But with the economy improving and the housing market still hot, an expanding number of neighborhoods across the country face little or no problem with these so-called zombie properties.†More here.

The latest data from the U.S Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development shows new home sales down nearly 13 percent in July. But the decreasing sales numbers are a bit misleading. That’s because the decline was mostly the result of a significant revision to month-before numbers. New home sales data is an estimate based on building permits and is often revised after initial reporting. In this case, after being revised upward, the June data actually shows sales were at their fastest pace since 2007. And, even after declining in July, sales of newly built homes remain 4.3 percent higher than at the same time last year. That’s encouraging news for the market. Combined with increased residential construction and moderating prices, the improvement could be a sign that the housing market is gaining some momentum. One possible reason for the positive turn is lower mortgage rates. Another is lower prices. According to the report, the median sales price of new homes sold in July fell 4.5 percent. Additionally, inventory levels improved, with the supply of homes rising to 337,000 units. At the current sales rate, that’s a 6.4-month supply. More here.

If you’re thinking about buying a house sometime soon, you should be prepared to act fast. New numbers from the National Association of Realtors show that the typical property was on the market just 29 days in July. And, while that’s up from the month before and better than last year at the same time, it still means good homes are selling quickly. In fact, 51 percent of homes sold in July were on the market less than a month. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the market is suffering from a lack of lower-priced homes for sale. “Clearly, the inventory of moderately-priced homes is inadequate and more home building is needed,“ Yun said. “Some new apartments could be converted into condominiums thereby helping with the supply.” But despite low inventory, home sales rose in July, climbing 2.5 percent over the month before. Regionally, sales fell in the Northeast but improved in the Midwest and South. In the West, home sales were up 8.3 percent from the month before.