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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell for the sixth consecutive week last week, bringing rates to the lowest level since February 2023. Rates fell across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says there are a number of factors behind the recent declines. “Treasury yields have been responding to data showing a picture of cooling inflation, a slowing job market, and the anticipated first rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month,” Kan said. “With rates almost a full percentage point lower than a year ago, refinance applications continue to run much higher than last year’s pace.” As of last week, the refinance index was up 106 percent over year-before levels. Purchase demand, on the other hand, still trails last year by 3 percent, despite a 2 percent week-over-week gain. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Traditionally, spring and summer are the housing market’s busiest seasons. Home shoppers tend to arrive as the weather begins to warm and then, as summer fades, the market tends to slow. But that doesn’t mean potential buyers should put their plans on hold until next spring. In fact, fall can be among the best times to buy and, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, early October, in particular, could be this year’s best time for buyers. Why? Well, for one, mortgage rates have been falling in recent weeks, making affordability levels more manageable. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says improved inventory is another reason. “Unlike the past few years, we are seeing ample for-sale inventory which could soak up any late-season demand in many markets, making the fall a great time to buy even if falling mortgage rates amp up more demand than is typical,” Hale said. “This year’s buyers who are looking for that optimum mix of ample options and the potential to save on list price are going to find some of the best market dynamics in years during the first week of October.” (source)

Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index is based on a survey of Americans that asks participants whether they think it’s a good time to buy or sell a home, whether they think home prices and mortgage rates will rise or fall over the next year, and how secure they feel in their job and income. In August, the index saw a 0.6 percent increase from the month before, mostly due to rising optimism about mortgage rates and home prices. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says overall sentiment remained steady. “On a national level, housing sentiment was largely unchanged in August despite some positive developments for affordability, including a meaningful decline in actual mortgage rates and an uptick in home listings in certain markets, particularly in the Sunbelt,” Palim said. It’s true. The share of respondents who said it’s a good time to buy was relatively flat, falling just 1 percent from the month before, while the share who said it’s a good time to sell remained unchanged month-over-month. (source)

The housing market has had an inventory problem for years now. Too few homes for sale has driven prices higher, increased competition and bidding wars, and limited options for buyers. Fortunately, though, the market has finally begun to bounce back. In fact, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, inventory has now risen for 10 straight months and was up 35.8 percent in August, pushing the number of homes for sale to its highest level since May 2020. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says this fall could be good for buyers. “As the market slows seasonally, fall is one of the best times to buy a house,” Hale said. “Falling mortgage rates are likely to bring out additional home shoppers and a busier fall season than usual, but the boost in activity is unlikely to overwhelm the usual seasonal slowdown. Shoppers, who are out this fall, are likely to face lower competition than is expected in spring 2025 as more shoppers anticipate better mortgage rates.” (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week from one week earlier. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming loan balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Jumbo loans saw a slight increase. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says it was the fourth consecutive week of declines. “Mortgage rates declined for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate at … the lowest since April 2023,” Kan said. “Rates have now come down more than 80 basis points from a year ago.” But despite more favorable rates, demand for mortgage applications was relatively flat last week, with the Market Composite Index – which measures both purchase and refinance activity – up just 0.5 percent from the week before. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home prices are still rising, according to the latest numbers from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. S&P’s National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reported a 5.4 percent year-over-year gain through the end of June. But that’s down from the previous month when prices were up 5.9 percent from the year before. Which means, home prices are still rising but they’re showing signs of deceleration. Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P, says, even as they slow, price increases are outpacing inflation. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices continue to show above-trend real price performance when accounting for inflation,” Luke said. “While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8 percent more than the Consumer Price Index.” Regionally, the largest gains were seen in New York City, while Portland showed the slowest rate of increase. (source)

Home buyers are watching the housing market closely, waiting for affordability to improve before making their move. Any drop in mortgage rates seems to inspire a wave of buyers looking to take advantage of the improvement. The latest new home sales numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development are the latest evidence of that. In July, new home sales reached the highest level in more than a year, spiking 10.6 percent from the month before and climbing 5.6 percent higher than last year at the same time. The gains – credited to falling mortgage rates during the month – outpaced economists’ expectations and marked the sharpest month-over-month increase in two years. They’re also another strong sign that buyer demand remains high and could climb even higher if, and when, rates drop further. (source)

Sales of previously owned homes increased 1.3 percent in July, breaking a four-month streak of monthly declines, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors. The improvement, while modest, was welcome. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says conditions are beginning to get better for buyers. “Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” Yun said. “But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.” It’s true. Mortgage rates have been trending downward and just saw their third consecutive weekly decrease. And while prices continue to rise, an increasing number of available homes for sale should help slow future increases. As it stands, total housing inventory at the end of July was up 19.8 percent from one year ago. That offers buyers more homes to choose from while helping to moderate prices. (source)

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a monthly outlook covering its expectations for the economy and housing market. In its most recent release, the group revised its forecast for home sales through the end of the year, predicting fewer than before. But with mortgage rates falling and the inventory of homes for sale rising, the news has been good for buyers. So why the revision? Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says home buyers remain reluctant. “On its face, the lower rate environment should be good for home sales by helping loosen the grip of the so-called ‘lock-in effect,’ in addition to aiding affordability more generally,” Palim said. “However, high-frequency data, such as mortgage applications, home showing requests, and listings views, suggest that many potential home buyers remain reluctant to make the jump.” Whether home buyers are moved to make the jump in the weeks ahead will help determine what the market looks like as it heads into fall. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell again last week. Rates were down from the week before for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances and loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. It was the third consecutive weekly decline. Despite the improvement, however, demand for mortgage applications was also down week-over-week. Mostly, the decrease was due to a drop in refinance activity, which slowed after a significant spike the week before. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says conditions are stabilizing. “Both mortgage rates and mortgage applications have now stabilized after a few weeks of financial market volatility, which led to a quick drop in mortgage rates,” Kan said. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)