Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a forecast each month covering their predictions for the economy and housing market. According to their most recent release, their outlook for full-year economic growth has been revised upward from last month’s projection. Their home-sales growth projection was also revised upward based on an expected end-of-year sales surge. But while the year-end forecasts were increasingly positive, the group sees challenges ahead in 2022. For one, they expect fewer home sales next year due to limited for-sale listings and growing affordability constraints. “According to the ESR Group, the impact of monetary policy tightening to combat inflation will combine with ongoing supply issues and still appreciating home prices to slow sales activity,” the release says. “While the economy picked up steam late in the year, unfortunately, so did inflation, and the market expects the Fed to recalibrate its monetary policy as a result.” Part of that is an expected mortgage rate increase. But while the Fed is likely to raise rates in 2022, they will still remain low by historical standards. (source)
Everybody knows buying a house is a long-term commitment. After all, the typical mortgage is paid over 30 years and the typical home seller has been in their home for almost 10 years. In other words, homeownership isn’t for frequent movers or anyone with a strong case of wanderlust. But regardless of how long you stay in one place, you aren’t likely to outlast your house. That’s because most homes will last around 100 years, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Home Builders of numbers from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In fact, just 0.59 percent of all housing units are lost each year. These homes are lost for various reasons – including demolition, disaster, conversions, mergers, and homes that are put to non-residential uses. And that rate is pretty consistent whether the home was built in 1983 or 1962. In fact, when broken down per decade, the annual loss rate is fairly steady, though it does accelerate to just over 1 percent for homes built before 1950. Overall, the data suggests most of the homes built recently will still be standing 100 years from now and, even if you bought a house built 40 years ago, it’ll likely still be standing strong in 2076. More here.