David Crowe Archives

Builder Confidence Holds Firm In March

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index measures builders’ confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes on a scale where any number above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. In March, the index was unchanged from the month before but remained at a high level, holding firm at 58. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the March reading is in line with the group’s forecast for 2016. “While builder sentiment has been relatively flat for the last few months, the March HMI reading correlates with the NAHB’s forecast of a steady firming of the single-family sector in 2016,” Crowe said. “Solid job growth, low mortgage rates and improving mortgage availability will help keep the housing market on a gradual upward trajectory in the coming months.” Of the three index components gauging buyer traffic, sales expectations for the next six months and current sales conditions, only current buyer traffic saw an increase, rising four points from the month before. Also in the release, three-month moving averages show the Midwest gaining a point, the South flat, and the West and Northeast declining from the month before. However, every region but the Northeast remains above 50, with the West leading all other regions with a March reading of 69. More here.

New Home Market Still Poised For Growth

The most recent National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index shows builder confidence in the new-home market slipped in February. The index asks home builders for their perception of the current and upcoming market for new homes. Their answers are then scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. In February, the Index fell three points to 58. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the dip in confidence is reflective of the current economic mood in the country but that the fundamentals are still strong. “Builders are reflecting consumers’ concerns about recent negative economic trends,” Crowe said. “However, the fundamentals are in place for continued growth of the housing market. Historically low mortgage rates, steady job gains, improved household formations, and significant pent up demand all point to a gradual upward trend for housing in the year ahead.” A closer look at the survey’s individual components supports Crowe’s optimism. For example, while the components gauging current sales conditions and buyer traffic declined, the measure of sales expectations for the next six months rose one point to 65. More here.

Builder Confidence Steady To Start The Year

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is a measure of how confident builders are in the market for newly built single-family homes. Conducted for the past 30 years, the survey is an important indicator for residential real estate due to the fact that more new homes being built is good – not only for the broader economy – but also for the entire housing market, as it helps moderate home-price increases in markets where for-sale inventory is low. According to the most recent results, builder confidence held steady in January from the month before, registering a reading of 60. The index is scored so that any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the results are in line with the group’s forecast for the year. “January’s HMI reading is right in line with our forecast of modest growth for housing,” Crowe said. “The economic outlook remains promising, as consumers regain confidence and home values increase, which will help the housing market move forward.” Also in the release, the gauge measuring current sales conditions led all index components, rising two points to 67. More here.

Builders End Year On An Optimistic Note

Though down slightly from the month before, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index remained at a high level in December. The Index – which measures builders’ perception of the market for newly built single-family homes – is scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In December, the Index dropped one point to 61. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the results are an indication that the residential real estate market will continue to make progress in the year ahead. “For the past seven months, builder confidence levels have averaged in the low 60s, which is in line with a gradual, consistent recovery,” Crowe said. “With job creation, economic growth, and growing household formations, we anticipate the housing market to continue to pick up traction as we head into 2016.” Each of the three individual index components suffered minor losses, including a two point decline in both the gauge of expectations for the next six months and buyer traffic. The component measuring current sales conditions fell just one point. The NAHB has been conducting the monthly survey for the past 30 years. More here.

Builder Confidence In New Home Market Still High

The market for newly built single-family homes is an important barometer of the housing market’s health overall. Because of this, the National Association of Home Builders surveys builders each month and asks for their perception of current sales conditions, buyer traffic, and expectations for the next six months. The Index is measured on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In November, it fell three points to 62. But despite the month-over-month decline, the Index has now been above 60 for six consecutive months and, according to NAHB’s chief economist, David Crowe, the real estate market is headed for continued improvement. “The November report is pullback from an unusually high October, and is more in line with the consistent, modest growth that we have seen throughout the year,” Crowe said. “A firming economy, continued job creation, and affordable mortgage rates should keep housing on an upward trajectory as we approach 2016.” Regionally, three-month moving averages show all four regions in positive territory. The West increased four points to 70, while the Northeast reached 50 after a three point gain. The Midwest and South were unchanged at 60 and 65, respectively. More here.

Market Strong Among Baby Boomer Buyers

The residential real estate market is booming among buyers 55 and older, according to the most recent 55+ Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders. The index – which measures builders’ perceptions of current sales, prospective buyer traffic, and their expectations for the next six months – is scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Third quarter results show a reading of 60, up three points from the previous quarter. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, says the market among baby boomers is strong and should continue to grow. “Like the overall housing market, we continue to see steady, positive growth in the 55+ market,” Crowe said. “With the economy and job growth continuing to improve gradually, many consumers are now able to sell their current homes at a suitable price, enabling them to buy or rent in a 55+ community.” This trend, driven by the price increases of the past few years, helps boost home sales but also works to moderate future price increases as more current homeowners put their homes up for sale, building for-sale inventory, and balancing the market. More here.

Builders Confident In New Home Market

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is a gauge of how builders see the current market for newly built single-family homes. The index is scored so that any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In October, the HMI rose three points to 64, which matches levels last seen at the end of the housing boom in 2005. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, says the improvement is further proof that the housing market is strengthening. “With October’s three-point uptick, builder confidence has been holding steady or increasing for five straight months,” Crowe said. “This upward momentum shows that our industry is strengthening at a gradual but consistent pace. With firm job creation, economic growth, and the release of pent-up demand, we expect housing to keep moving forward as we start to close out 2015.” In fact, builders are particularly optimistic about the market going forward. Among the three individual index components measuring sales expectations for the next six months, current condition, and buyer traffic, expectations for future sales saw the biggest increase, moving up seven points to 75. The component measuring current sales conditions jumped three points to 70, while buyer traffic was unchanged from the month before at 47. More here.

Builder Confidence Hits 10-Year High

Builders have a pretty good view of where the new home market is headed and, because of this, the National Association of Home Builders polls them each month to get their perspective. The survey has been conducted for 30 years and asks builders to rate buyer traffic, current sales conditions, and expectations for the next six months. In September, NAHB’s Housing Market Index rose another point and hit its highest level since October 2005. The index – which is measured on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor – increased to 62 for the month. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the results indicate that the new home market should continue to improve through the end of the year. “NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” Crowe said. “Today’s report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.” Of the three components, those measuring buyer traffic and current sales conditions each moved up slightly, while the index gauging expectations for the next six months dropped two points. More here.

Majority Of Recently Sold Homes Affordable

During the second quarter of this year, 63.2 percent of the new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $65,800, according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Opportunity Index. And though that’s down from 66.5 percent in the first quarter, David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, says conditions are still favorable. “Though affordability edged slightly lower in the second quarter, the HOI remains well above 50, where half the households can afford half the homes sold,” Crowe said. “Low mortgage rates, pent-up demand and continued job growth should contribute to a gradual, steady rise in housing throughout the year.” The slight drop in affordability is largely due to the fact that home prices continue to rise. In fact, the national median home price increased from $210,000 in the first quarter to $230,000 in the second quarter. On the other hand, average mortgage rates actually moved lower during the same period, which should help offset some of the effects of continued price gains. More here.