Housing Market Index Archives

Builders Still Optimistic About The Market

Because builders have an unique view of the new home market, the National Association of Home Builders tracks their perspective each month as part of their Housing Market Index. The survey has been conducted for 30 years and scores builders’ responses on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In July, builder confidence was relatively unchanged from the month before, falling one point to 59. Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, says the market remains poised for growth. “The economic fundamentals are in place for continued slow, steady growth in the housing market,” Dietz said. “Job creation is solid, mortgage rates are at historic lows and household formations are rising. These factors should help to bring more buyers into the market as the year progresses.” Among the survey’s three components, measuring buyer traffic, current sales, and expectations for the next six months, future expectations fell furthest, dropping three points to 66. Regionally, the Midwest, South, and West all continued to post positive numbers, while the Northeast trails behind with a three-month moving average of 39. Builder confidence is considered an important measure of housing’s health due to the important role new homes play in balancing the market. More here.

New Home Market Strong Among Older Buyers

The market for new homes among buyers over the age of 55 has been in positive territory for eight consecutive quarters, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ 55+ Housing Market Index. The index measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Survey results for the first quarter of this year scored a 56, down five points from the previous quarter. Jim Chapman, chairman of the NAHB’s 55+ Housing Industry Council, says sentiment overall was positive. “Although builder sentiment in the 55+ housing sector is down slightly from its peak, overall confidence is still in positive territory,” Chapman said. “Builders for the 55+ market are doing quite well in some areas across the country, while others are experiencing challenges that are hindering production.” Despite those challenges, the number of builders expecting sales to be strong over the next six months was higher than ever. In fact, the index component measuring expected sales rose eight points to 71, which is the highest reading since the index began in 2008. On the other hand, gauges of current sales and buyer traffic were down from the previous quarter. More here.

Baby Boomer Buyers Are On The Move

There’s been plenty of talk about the fact that there are fewer young Americans buying homes over the past few years. On the flip side, however, the market for new homes among buyers 55 and older has remained strong and continues to improve. In fact, the National Association of Home Builders 55+ Housing Market Index – which measures builders’ perceptions of the market among older buyers – has now seen seven consecutive quarters of positive readings. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, says those gains will likely continue. “This quarter’s 55+ HMI is in line with our forecast for the overall housing market, which shows a gradual, steady recovery,” Crowe said. “In addition, the 55+ housing market is benefitting from growing home equity on the balance sheets of 55+ households, an improving economic outlook, historically low mortgage rates and a growing population as baby boomers age.” In other words, there are an increasing number of baby boomer households that have seen their current home’s value rise and are looking to capitalize on the equity they’ve gained by shopping for a new house that fits better with their needs and lifestyle. With affordability conditions still favorable across much of the country, builders expect to see many older buyers active in the market in the coming months. More here.

Market Strong Among Baby Boomer Buyers

The residential real estate market is booming among buyers 55 and older, according to the most recent 55+ Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders. The index – which measures builders’ perceptions of current sales, prospective buyer traffic, and their expectations for the next six months – is scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Third quarter results show a reading of 60, up three points from the previous quarter. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, says the market among baby boomers is strong and should continue to grow. “Like the overall housing market, we continue to see steady, positive growth in the 55+ market,” Crowe said. “With the economy and job growth continuing to improve gradually, many consumers are now able to sell their current homes at a suitable price, enabling them to buy or rent in a 55+ community.” This trend, driven by the price increases of the past few years, helps boost home sales but also works to moderate future price increases as more current homeowners put their homes up for sale, building for-sale inventory, and balancing the market. More here.

Builder Confidence Hits 10-Year High

Builders have a pretty good view of where the new home market is headed and, because of this, the National Association of Home Builders polls them each month to get their perspective. The survey has been conducted for 30 years and asks builders to rate buyer traffic, current sales conditions, and expectations for the next six months. In September, NAHB’s Housing Market Index rose another point and hit its highest level since October 2005. The index – which is measured on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor – increased to 62 for the month. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the results indicate that the new home market should continue to improve through the end of the year. “NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” Crowe said. “Today’s report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.” Of the three components, those measuring buyer traffic and current sales conditions each moved up slightly, while the index gauging expectations for the next six months dropped two points. More here.