property management in NYC Archives

Mortgage Rates Mostly Calm Last Week

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates were mostly calm last week, after two consecutive weeks of declines. There was only slight movement among different loan types. For example, rates increased for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances but were down for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were unchanged from the week before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says mortgage applications were mostly flat as a result. “Mortgage applications were relatively flat, with a decline in purchase activity offset by an increase in refinance applications,” Kan said. “The purchase market continues to experience a slowdown, despite the strong job market. Activity has now fallen in five of the last six weeks.” Demand for loans to buy homes fell 1 percent from the week before. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home Buying Conditions Could Soon Stabilize

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index is considered a good indicator of future home sales because it measures contract signings rather than closings. Generally speaking, contracts to buy are signed weeks before a sale is closed, which means a drop in the number of signed contracts will most likely show up as a decline in home sales the following month. In April, the NAR’s index fell 3.9 percent, indicating that home sales will soon slow. The reasons for this are obvious: Spiking mortgage rates, on top of already high home prices, have buyers concerned about affordability. But, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, quickly changing conditions could soon stabilize, offering home buyers more certainty in the months ahead. “If mortgage rates stabilize roughly at the current level … and job gains continue, home sales could also stabilize in the coming months,” Yun said. “Home prices in the meantime appear in no danger of any meaningful decline. There is an ongoing housing shortage, and properly listed homes are still selling swiftly – generally seeing a contract signed within a month.”

Sale-Pending

Home Builders React To Growing Challenges

Home builders are a reliable barometer of housing market health, since their business depends on being able to anticipate buyers’ needs. That’s why the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly Housing Market Index – which measures builder confidence – is a closely watched industry metric. The index is scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In May, the index fell for the fifth straight month, dropping to 69. Though still a positive result, it’s an indication that builders are starting to feel the effects of numerous challenges facing the market, including higher mortgage rates. “The housing market is facing growing challenges,” Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, said. “Building material costs are up 19 percent from a year ago, in less than three months mortgage rates have surged to a 12-year high and based on current affordability conditions, less than 50 percent of new and existing home sales are affordable for a typical family.” But while the market has become more challenging, all three index components remain in positive territory, including the gauge of current sales conditions which scored a 78 in May. (source)

Construction

How Much Competition Will Winter Buyers Face?

Home buyers faced a lot of competition this year. Elevated demand and fewer homes available for sale meant interested buyers had to be ready for a bidding war or risk losing a good house to a better prepared buyer. This was certainly true during the spring and summer markets. In fact, according to one measure, 74.6 percent of offers faced competition in April. Fortunately, though, that was the peak. And, as the summer market turned to fall, buyer competition began to slow. By October, the number of offers that saw competition from other buyers had fallen to 61.8 percent. From there, it fell even further. The most recent numbers available show the competition rate was 59.5 percent in November – the first time since December 2020 that it dropped below 60 percent. But while that’s a good indication that winter buyers will face less competition than earlier in the year, the rate in November was still up 2 percent from the year before. In other words, though the market isn’t as hot, buyers still need to be prepared, since competition remains high and most homes continue to draw multiple buyers. (source)

Competition

Credit Availability Unchanged in November

When thinking about buying a house, most of us look at home prices and mortgage rates. Together, they can provide a rough idea of how much home we can afford. They aren’t, however, the only factors that determine whether or not we’re ready and able to buy. One metric that isn’t as commonly checked but has a significant impact is mortgage credit availability. Put simply, the standards lenders use to determine whether or not a borrower is qualified aren’t fixed. That means, there are times when it’s easier to qualify for a mortgage and times when it’s more difficult. The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks credit availability each month to gauge whether standards are loosening or tightening. Any increase indicates lending standards are loosening, while a decrease means they’ve tightened. In November, the index was relatively flat, falling less than 1 percent from the month before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says government credit tightened while other loan types loosened. “The picture was different depending on the market segment,” Kan said. “An increase in conventional credit availability was offset by a decrease in government credit, as lenders reduced their offerings of government loan programs with lower credit scores, as well as those for investment homes.”

Money

Most Homes Will Last More Than 100 Years

Everybody knows buying a house is a long-term commitment. After all, the typical mortgage is paid over 30 years and the typical home seller has been in their home for almost 10 years. In other words, homeownership isn’t for frequent movers or anyone with a strong case of wanderlust. But regardless of how long you stay in one place, you aren’t likely to outlast your house. That’s because most homes will last around 100 years, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Home Builders of numbers from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In fact, just 0.59 percent of all housing units are lost each year. These homes are lost for various reasons – including demolition, disaster, conversions, mergers, and homes that are put to non-residential uses. And that rate is pretty consistent whether the home was built in 1983 or 1962. In fact, when broken down per decade, the annual loss rate is fairly steady, though it does accelerate to just over 1 percent for homes built before 1950. Overall, the data suggests most of the homes built recently will still be standing 100 years from now and, even if you bought a house built 40 years ago, it’ll likely still be standing strong in 2076. More here.