Monthly Archives: September 2025

“Normal” is tough to define. But when it comes to housing affordability, most potential home buyers can agree the past several years have felt anything but normal. Skyrocketing prices, elevated mortgage rates, and competition from other buyers have made finding an affordable house seem almost impossible. Fortunately, the market has calmed recently and, according to one new study, may even be on track to return to normal. Per the report, if both home price and wage growth hold at today’s pace, mortgage rates would only need to fall a little bit further for the market to be on the right track. In fact, the market would return to normal conditions within the next few years. And, If home prices were to flatten or decline even a little, we’d be back to normal even sooner. Put another way, if current trends continue and rates ease, a balanced and affordable housing market may be closer than you think. (source)

Spring is known as the housing market’s hottest time of year. It’s also usually the best time of year to sell a house. But is it the best time to buy? Well, not according to one new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website. The group’s 2025 Best Time To Buy Report found the best time for buyers is actually fall – and it’s fast approaching. In fact, the week of October 12-18 is considered the time to buy, as it provides a combination of more available listings and less competition from other buyers. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says buyers may also find savings. “After years of constrained conditions, the 2025 housing market is giving buyers something they haven’t had in a long time: options,” Hale said. “I expect this market momentum shift to magnify typical seasonal trends that favor home buyers in the fall. During the week of October 12-18, data suggest that buyers will find more homes for sale, less competition from other shoppers, and potential average savings of more than $15,000 compared to this summer’s peak prices.” (source)

The fastest way out of a shortage of available homes for sale is building more new homes. That’s why new home construction ramped up over the past several years. There were too few homes for sale to satisfy the number of interested buyers and building was the best way out of the problem. Now, though, the tables may have turned. Buyer demand has slowed and the number of available new homes for sale is high. That’s causing residential construction to stall. In fact, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single-family housing starts fell 7 percent month-over-month in August, with new housing projects down 17 percent in the South – where new home inventory is highest. But while the news isn’t good for home builders, it may be for buyers, who could benefit from better deals on new homes as builders attempt to sell the available supply. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell again last week. Rates were down from the week before across most loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Rates are now at the lowest level since last October and borrowers are noticing. In fact, the MBA’s measure of purchase and refinance activity was up nearly 30 percent last week. Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, says refinancing activity saw the biggest boost. “Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week,” Fratantoni said. “Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey. Almost 60 percent of applications were for refinances, but there was also a pickup in purchase applications.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is a monthly measure of how confident builders are in the market for newly built homes. The index is based on a survey of builders and is considered an important indicator for the market since home builders have to know when, where, and what Americans want to buy in order to be successful. If builders are feeling confident and building more homes, chances are conditions are good and buyers are interested. According to the most recent survey, overall confidence was unchanged in September but the index component measuring future expectations reached a six-month high. Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, says lower mortgage rates may be behind the increasing optimism. “NAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans,” Dietz said. “Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks … this is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.” (source)

Insurance is something you don’t think too much about until you need it. But with rising prices pushing the cost of homeownership higher, it’s increasingly on the minds of prospective home buyers. In fact, a new survey from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website found 88 percent of surveyed buyers say they believe they’ll pay more for insurance in the future and 75 percent say it could ultimately become unaffordable. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says buyers have begun adjusting their shopping strategies. “Homeowners insurance offers financial protection for consumers that may help cover damage to homes and personal property from an extreme weather event or fire, while also providing personal property and liability coverage,” Hale said. “But these benefits come with an upfront cost that has risen as weather events have become more frequent and impactful and rebuilding costs climb. Homeowners are looking for strategies to lower costs including adjusting their home searches and potentially short-changing or forgoing coverage altogether.” (source)

Access to mortgage credit isn’t fixed. There are times when it’s easier to obtain a loan and times when it’s more difficult. That’s why the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks mortgage credit availability each month with its Mortgage Credit Availability Index. The index tracks whether access to credit is loosening or tightening based on current lending standards and loan programs. Any increase in the index is indicative of loosening credit, while declines indicate lending standards are tightening. According to the latest release, the index saw a slight 0.1 percent increase in August. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says credit has stabilized. “Mortgage credit availability increased slightly in August, driven by a small increase in ARM product offerings …” Kan said. “Overall industry capacity seems to have stabilized somewhat after some significant declines over the past few years as companies adjusted to a lower volume environment.” (source)

One way to measure housing market health is to look at months of supply. Months of supply refers to how long it would take to sell all the homes available for sale at the current sales pace. When months of supply is low, it benefits sellers. When it’s high, buyers are in control. A six-month supply is considered a balanced housing market and, according to one new analysis, we’re getting close. The National Association of Realtors’ consumer website’s August housing report found there’s currently a five-month supply of homes available for sale. That’s pretty close to balanced and a level not seen during summer since the website began tracking the metric in 2016. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says buyers still need to watch their local market. “The national housing market is now more balanced between home buyers and sellers at five months of supply, but that balance conceals a wide range of local realities,’ Hale said. “In Miami, Austin, and Orlando, buyers are clearly in control, while in metros like Milwaukee and Boston, sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat.” (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week from the week before. Rates were down across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says rates are now at an almost one-year low. “Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening,” Kan said. “The 30-year fixed rate decreased … over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024.” As a result, demand for mortgage applications spiked, with a 7 percent increase in purchase activity and a 12 percent bump in the refinance index. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Each month, Fannie Mae conducts a survey of Americans to gauge home buying sentiment. Its Home Purchase Sentiment Index asks participants for their feelings about the housing market and overall economy, including home prices, mortgage rates, and whether they think it’s a good or bad time to buy or sell a home. In August, the index was relatively flat from the month before, with overall sentiment less than a point lower than July. But while the overall index was flat, there were some big swings in sentiment, particularly when it comes to buying a home and mortgage rates. According to the results, there are a growing number of Americans who think now’s a good time to buy. In fact, the share of survey respondents who said so spiked 9 percent in August and is now 21 percent higher year-over-year. Home buying sentiment is still lower than normal but it may be growing due to optimism about mortgage rates. The survey found consumers expect better rates in the months ahead, with an 11 percent increase in respondents who say rates will fall over the next year. (source)