Fannie Mae Archives

Global Woes Haven’t Hurt Housing Health

In today’s world, everything is connected. Because of this, global economic conditions can impact the U.S. economy and housing market. And, according to Fannie Mae’s latest Economic and Housing Outlook from their Economic & Strategic Research Group, the economy does appear to have slowed in response to sluggish global markets. However, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says the housing market should still improve despite the headwinds. “We expect our 2016 theme ‘housing affordability constrains as expansion matures’ to hold true as home price gains are likely to outpace household income growth as the year continues,” Duncan said. “However, the expected increase in home prices should help lift underwater mortgages and create a healthier housing market. Meanwhile, increased household formation, low mortgage rates, and easing credit standards and more access to credit for residential mortgages are positive factors for a continued housing expansion.” Duncan also says builders should be able to build new single-family homes at a faster pace this year, which should help moderate price increases and provide more options for prospective buyers. In short, though there has been a lot of economic uncertainty in the news lately, the housing market still appears to be on solid footing. More here.

Income Growth Key To Housing Sentiment

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index looks at consumers’ attitudes toward buying and selling a home, mortgage rates, household income, prices, employment and more in an effort to measure Americans’ feelings about the residential real estate market. According to the most recent release, housing optimism slipped slightly in January, falling 1.7 points from the month before. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says income growth isn’t keeping up with home price increases and it’s causing affordability concerns among potential buyers. “Housing affordability is being constrained because the pace of growth in real income has not kept up with gains in real home prices as demand has grown faster than supply,” Duncan said. “On the bright side, consumers have been increasingly positive about their ability to get a mortgage, suggesting that credit tightness is not the main issue limiting housing market activity today, a feeling that we also see conveyed by lenders in our Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey.” Duncan expects that consumers’ attitudes toward buying a house will likely remain flat until income growth picks up or there is an increase in the number of lower-priced homes available for sale. More here.

Housing Gains Balanced On Wages, Prices

Last year, the housing market posted its best numbers since 2007. Still-favorable affordability conditions, led by low mortgage rates, resulted in a strong year for home sales. But with the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates and the continuing climb of home prices, there is increasing concern that housing affordability may become an issue for prospective home buyers in 2016. So how are things likely to play out? According to Fannie Mae’s most recent Economic & Housing Outlook, the Fed’s rate hike hasn’t had much of an impact yet, so wage growth and home prices are the most important factors to watch. “Despite our expectation of only a small rise in mortgage rates, home price and income dynamics should inhibit home purchase affordability,” Duncan said. “In addition, continued rent increases will hinder renters’ ability to save for down payments. Therefore, we believe the pace of improvement in total home sales should moderate to 4 percent in 2016.” Still, Duncan expects an increasing number of single-family housing starts this year, which may provide some relief in markets where low inventory is pushing prices upward. Also, continued gains in job security and household income – along with eased lending standards – could help balance the effects of higher home prices and allow more Americans to pursue their dreams of homeownership. More here.

Americans Feeling Confident As Year Ends

According to Fannie Mae’s December 2015 Home Purchase Sentiment Index, Americans were feeling more confident about their jobs, income, and outlook as last year came to a close. In fact, four of the six index components saw improvement from the month before, including the percentage of respondents who said it is a good time to sell a house, those who feel home prices will continue to rise, the number of participants who aren’t concerned about losing their job, and those who said their income has increased significantly over the past year. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said the results could mean more prospective home buyers will be shopping for a house this year. “Consumers ended the year on an improved note with regard to their income, job security, and overall economic outlook,” Duncan said. “Brightening economic prospects, if sustained, should stimulate demand for homeownership. However, continuing upward pressure on rental prices and constrained housing supply, particularly for starter homes, may mean prospective first-time home buyers could face affordability constraints.” Despite increasing affordability concerns, the residential real estate market had a strong 2015 and, with a positive economic outlook and increased demand, this year may see additional improvement. More here.

Homeownership To Rebound Among Young Adults

The number of homeowners between the ages of 25 and 34 has been falling since long before the recent housing crash and recession. Then, during the crash, the number of young American homeowners dropped by more than 300,000 each year before leveling off in 2014. The reasons for the dwindling number of young American homeowners range from shifting demographics to recent volatility in the job market. But, according to an article from Patrick Simmons of Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, the long decline may be nearing an end. “Given that the young-adult population is expected to expand robustly during the second half of the decade, it would take only modest further improvements in homeownership rate trends for the number of young homeowners to return to growth,” Simmons says. Though it’s difficult to say with any certainty, Simmons believes a combination of continued job and income growth, demographics, and a strong desire to own a home could lead to an increasing number of young adults buying homes in the coming years. After many years of decline, a growing number of first-time buyers would greatly impact, not only the housing market, but the broader economy as well. More here.

Mortgage Pros See Easier Credit Ahead

Fannie Mae’s quarterly Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey polls mortgage professionals to get an idea of how they see the current market and the months ahead. Recently released, their fourth-quarter survey finds lenders reporting that credit standards continue to ease – which is good news for potential home buyers looking to purchase a house in the coming months. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says increased credit availability should help home buyers affected by decreasing affordability conditions. “Several factors point to constrained housing affordability in 2016, particularly for first-time home buyers, including slow single-family supply response and limited inventory of starter homes on the market, strong inflation-adjusted house price appreciation outpacing household income growth, and an upward bias in mortgage rates. However, on net, lenders told us in our fourth-quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey that they have eased and expect to continue to ease credit standards, which was a consistent trend throughout 2015,” Duncan said. “Thoughtful easing will help mitigate some of the affordability decline moving into 2016.” The percentage of lenders reporting easing expectations reached a new survey high, according to the survey’s results. More here.

Income Worries May Keep Buyers Cautious

The housing market is set to have its best year since 2007, largely due to an improved economy and labor market. But, despite the gains, home price increases are outpacing income growth and causing prospective buyers to remain cautious, according to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae. The Index – which measures Americans’ attitudes toward buying and selling a home – fell slightly in November, though it remains at a high level. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, said the results are not a surprise. “The latest reading of the Home Purchase Sentiment Index remains near the survey’s high witnessed in June, exemplifying the theme we laid out at the beginning of the year: the economy drags housing upward,” Duncan said. “While aggregate income growth has gradually picked up with a continually improving labor market, consumers’ assessment of their income over the past year has not yet shown sustained improvement, partially weighing on overall sentiment.” Duncan feels that, until Americans feel more financially confident, they may be hesitant to buy. More here.

Experts Expect Rebound As End Of Year Nears

The economy and housing market are showing encouraging signs as the end of the year nears. In fact, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, the economy should see a strong fourth quarter finish, despite the recent loss of economic momentum. A combination of higher hourly earnings and lower unemployment numbers is making Americans feel more financially stable, which should lead to increased consumer spending. That’s a positive sign for the economy and the residential real estate market as well. “Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past two months,” said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time home buyers.” Fortunately, Fannie Mae is forecasting only a gradual increase in mortgage rates through next year and expects rising household incomes to lessen the impact of higher home prices. More here.

Potential Buyers Feeling Confident But Cautious

Americans feel confident they’re in no danger of losing their jobs but have cooled a bit on the idea of buying a house, according to the most recent results of Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The survey – which asks Americans about their attitudes toward owning a home, price changes, the economy, their finances and more – was virtually flat from the month before but saw a slight decrease in the number of respondents who said now was a good time to buy a home. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, said, though Americans feel secure in their jobs, their incomes aren’t growing. “The income growth necessary for renewed momentum in housing market sentiment remains elusive, even though consumers’ confidence in their job security continues to strengthen,” Duncan said. “Consumers’ net view on whether their household income has improved over the last year is down once again this month.” Still, despite the fact that consumers have become slightly more hesitant, the overall index remains near its highest level of the past four years and all indications point to continued strength through the end of the year and into 2016. More here.

Rising Household Net Worth Boosts Economy

Recent data paints a mixed picture of today’s housing market. On the one hand, pending and new home sales both fell in September. On the other, existing-home sales, housing starts, and builders confidence all rebounded. Combined with recent news of economic volatility and slower growth, it may be difficult to figure out where things stand. According to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, however, things aren’t as complicated as they may seem. In fact, the group – which releases an updated forecast for the economy and housing market each month – says things are still moving in a positive direction, despite the ups-and-downs found in the latest data. “Despite recent headwinds, which likely will slow economic growth compared to the first half of 2015, we see positive trends for consumer spending and housing heading into the fourth quarter,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said. “Strong home price gains should help drive an increase in household net worth again in the third quarter, and, combined with low gasoline prices and mortgage rates, should support strong consumer spending throughout the rest of the year.” In other words, the strength of recent price increases has boosted the average American homeowner’s net worth, which should help drive consumer spending and the overall economy through the end of this year. More here.