Each month, Fannie Mae surveys Americans and asks them for their opinion on whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a home, mortgage rates, home prices, their job and financial situation. The resulting Home Purchase Sentiment Index is a good gauge of how Americans are feeling about market conditions and the overall economy. According to the most recent release, survey respondents are feeling more confident and it’s mostly due to a sense that mortgage rates are going to fall. In fact, a record share of respondents said they expect rates to fall over the next year and it helped push the number who say it’s a good time to buy 6 percent higher. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says optimism has risen as Americans have adjusted to market conditions. “Notably, this improvement in sentiment continues a trend that began about two and a half years ago likely due in part to consumers’ slow-but-steady acclimation to current market conditions,†Palim said. Respondents are also feeling optimistic about their financial situation and home prices, both of which they expect to improve in 2025. (source)

Affordability is always a top concern for home buyers and, according to a new survey from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, that isn’t likely to change any time soon. The group surveyed housing and mortgage industry experts and found that they expect affordability conditions to continue to weigh on buyers in the new year. The good news, though, is respondents also said they believe home price increases will slow in 2025. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, agrees. “We share our panelists’ view that home price growth is likely to decelerate next year, as the mix of continued elevated mortgage rates and the run-up in home prices of the past four years will likely continue to strain affordability and remain an impediment to many would-be home buyers,†Palim said. Fannie Mae’s fourth quarter Home Price Expectations Survey shows home prices increasing 3.8 percent in 2025, after projecting a 5.2 percent growth in 2024. (source)

The end of the year is prediction season. Experts and insiders in every industry release future forecasts offering their take on what will happen over the next 12 months. The housing market is no exception. The National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, for example, recently released an outlook for 2025 and it looks to be good news for home buyers. The forecast says the housing market will find better balance in the year ahead, with the number of homes for sale reaching its highest level since 2019. More available homes for sale will result in less competition between buyers and more sellers cutting prices on listed homes. Mortgage rates are also expected to improve in 2025, though the improvement will likely be slow and gradual. Overall, increased inventory will help buyers find better choices and improved conditions but the market will still be costly, according to the website’s forecast. Affordability conditions will remain particularly challenging in areas where inventory has yet to rebound. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Application Survey, average mortgage rates moved lower last week from the week before. Rates were down across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says rates have fallen and it’s motivating buyers. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in over a month last week …,” Kan said. “The recent strength in purchase activity continues, supported by lower rates and higher inventory levels, which are giving prospective buyers more options compared to earlier in the year.” As a result, the MBA’s Purchase Index increased for the fourth straight week last week, moving 6 percent higher. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Moving to a new home is exciting. Sure, there will be headaches and stress along the way, but starting off fresh in a new place – whether it’s five miles away or 500 miles away – is rejuvenating. That’s undeniable. But it’s also true that some of us are more ready to make a move than others. In fact, according to a recent analysis of last year’s Census data, one state in particular had more movers than any other. So which was it? Well, the data shows 3.3 million Texans moved within Texas last year – which is both the highest number of people who moved within a state and the highest share, at 11 percent of the state’s population. Wherever you are, though – if you’re moving – you’re likely staying close to home. Between 1989 and 2021, the median distance home buyers moved was just 10 to 15 miles. (source)

Once a home seller agrees to a buyer’s offer and the parties sign a contract to buy, that home’s sale is considered pending until it closes weeks later. The National Association of Realtors tracks pending sales because they’re considered a good forward-looking indicator of future home sales numbers. After all, most pending sales lead to final sales. That’s why it’s good news that the latest results of the NAR’s index show pending home sales up 2 percent in October from the month before. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says it’s a sign buyer momentum is gaining. “Home buying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales,†Yun said. “Even with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the short-term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to the market.†(source)

The new home market helps keep the overall housing market balanced. When demand is high, builders build more homes. That adds to the supply of available homes and helps keep home prices from spiking – which means, whether you’re considering buying a new house or not, the new home market impacts your home search. So is it bad news that the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development show new home sales down 17.3 percent in October? Well, it may not be as bad as it seems. First off, mortgage rates increased in October, after falling throughout August and September. That likely had a discouraging effect on buyers. The other factor was weather. Two major hurricanes led to a sharp drop in sales in the South, where the new home market has been most active. In short, between extreme weather events and rising rates, October’s new home sales numbers aren’t likely the result of a downward trend. More than likely, they’re the result of a unique set of conditions and regional factors. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week for the first time in two months. Rates were down across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says home buyer activity rose as a result. “Purchase activity drove overall applications higher last week, as conventional purchase applications picked up pace and mortgage rates declined for the first time in over two months …,†Kan said. “With the growth in for-sale inventory and signs that the economy remains strong, buyers have remained in the market even though rates have increased recently.†The MBA’s Purchase Index increased 12 percent last week from the week before, helping to push overall mortgage application demand 6.3 percent higher week-over-week. (source)

The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is among the leading measures of U.S. home prices. The Index has been collecting data for more than 27 years and covers all nine U.S. census divisions. According to the most recently released results, home prices rose 3.9 percent year-over-year through the end of September. That’s down from the 4.3 percent annual gain seen in the previous month’s report. But while home prices are decelerating nationally, Brian Luke, CFA, Head of commodities, Real & Digital Assets, says some parts of the country continue to see above-trend growth. “We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7 percent and 5.4 percent respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,†Luke says. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023.†Regionally, the South reported the slowest year-over-year price growth, at 2.8 percent. Denver was the slowest growing metro area, up 0.2 percent from last year. (source)

It’s been a while since home buyers had the upper hand. In recent years, sellers have held all the power, while home buyers competed against each other to get an offer accepted. Too few homes for sale meant bidding wars, rising home prices, fast sales, and frustrated home shoppers. But this year things started to change. The inventory of homes for sale has been improving, and it’s led to an increasing number of metro areas where buyers are having better luck. In fact, according to one new analysis, home buyers now have the upper hand in 13 major metropolitan areas, with an increasing number of buyer’s markets expected in the new year. Currently, most of the buyer’s markets are located in the Southeast – where new home construction has helped the supply of available homes – but gains are expected to spread to the Southwest in 2025, as inventory continues to improve and more housing markets find balance. (source)