March 2016

Home Loan Demand Suggests Strong Spring

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, demand for loans to buy homes is 27 percent higher than it was at the same time last year. This indicates that this spring’s selling season could be even stronger than last year’s. That is encouraging news, especially since recent economic data has suggested activity is slowing. But despite the annual gain, demand for mortgage applications was down 4.8 percent from the week before. The decline was mostly due to a 7 percent drop in the number of borrowers looking to refinance. Refinance activity is usually more volatile than purchase demand – and more sensitive to rate fluctuations. Last week’s dip happened, however, during a week when mortgage rates were down. In fact, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with both conforming and jumbo balances fell from the week before. So did average rates on loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president for forecasting and industry surveys, says many years of lower-than-normal mortgage rates has reduced the number of homeowners that can benefit from refinancing. “Applications for both conventional and government refinance loans decreased, as the supply of borrowers who could benefit from rates at this level begins to diminish,” Kan told CNBC. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

Skyrocketing Rent Creates Home Buyers

A recently conducted survey of prospective home buyers found that rising rent was cited by 25 percent of respondents as the reason they were looking to buy a home. The only answer more common was a major life event, such as the birth of a child or marriage. That an increasing number of potential home buyers named the cost of renting as their main motivation for buying a house should come as no surprise. Over the past few years, the single-family rental market has boomed, driving rent upward. And though home prices have also been rising, in many markets buying a home is still the more affordable choice. But buyers are thinking about more than just affordability. Prospective buyers also expressed concern that a lack of homes available for sale will make it difficult for them to find a house to buy. In fact, the number of participants who said inventory was a concern has risen 4 percent since the last quarter of 2015. And with fewer homes to choose from, potential buyers are also worried about competition from other buyers, bidding wars, and sticking to their budget. Overall, though, the survey found potential house hunters are more inclined to buy this year than they were last year, with 33 percent of respondents saying they are ready to buy now – up 5 percent from last summer. More here.

Pending Sales See 17th Straight Annual Gain

Though sales estimates can be volatile from month-to-month, the numbers can be a bit more clear when looked at year-over-year. For example, the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index – which measures the number of contracts to buy homes signed during the month – fell 2.5 percent in January from December’s estimate. But, despite the decline, contract signings were up over year-before levels for the 17thconsecutive month – an indication that sales continue to strengthen. Because of this, January’s slowdown isn’t likely cause for concern. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says there were many reasons for the dip. “While January’s blizzard possibly caused some of the pullback in the Northeast, the recent acceleration in home prices and minimal inventory throughout the country appears to be the primary obstacle holding back would-be buyers,” Yun said. “Additionally, some buyers could be waiting for a hike in listings come springtime.” But, though spring is traditionally the time homeowners put their homes up for sale, Yun says low inventory will not improve until home builders begin building more new homes at lower price points. More here.