Monthly Archives: July 2022

The number of homes for sale has recently showed signs of a rebound after hitting historic lows during the pandemic. The additional listings are obviously welcome news for prospective home buyers. But while there have been signs of improvement, listings remain low. In fact, according to one new survey of Realtors, too few homes for sale is still the leading factor holding their clients back from buying a house. In other words, the low supply of homes ranks as an even bigger hurdle than high home prices and the recent spike in mortgage rates. “In the last year, Realtors continued to navigate a challenging housing market and cited the biggest factor holding back the housing market was tight inventory,” Jessica Lautz, NAR’s vice president of demographics and behavioral insights, says. But while conditions have been challenging, buyers have persevered. Last year, for example, 6.12 million existing homes were sold – the most since 2006. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates were mostly flat last week, with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming balances unchanged from the week before. Rates for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration declined week-over-week, while jumbo loans and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages saw smaller decreases. Though rates remained relatively steady, mortgage application demand still fell, with the purchase index down 4 percent from one week earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says demand dropped but so has the average loan size. “After reaching a record $460,000 in March 2022, the average purchase loan size was $415,000 last week, pulled lower by the potential moderation of home-price growth and weaker purchase activity at the upper end of the market,” Kan said. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

In order to buy a house, you need a mortgage. To get a mortgage, you need to be approved for a loan. That means having a lender look at your finances to determine whether or not you can manage the financial obligations of owning a home. In part, that determination will be based on current lending standards. When standards are tighter, your finances will have to be in better shape to qualify for a loan. When they loosen, you have a better chance of being approved, even if your credit history isn’t perfect. The Mortgage Bankers Association keeps track of lending standards from month to month in an effort to measure how easy or difficult it is for prospective buyers to get approved for a mortgage. In June, their Credit Availability Index was relatively unchanged from the month before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says, these days, credit availability depends on the type of loan. “Credit availability was mixed by loan type, with the conventional index up 1.2 percent and the government index down 1.7 percent,” Kan said. “Although there was reduced supply of lower credit score, high LTV rate-term refinance programs, the decline was offset by increased offerings for conventional ARM and high balance loans.” (source)

There’s been a lot of speculation lately that home prices are going to start cooling off. That may be true, and it’d certainly be a relief to home buyers trying to navigate today’s market. But while price increases are expected to slow in the coming months, new numbers from ATTOM Data Solutions shows they continued climbing during the second quarter of this year. In fact, according to ATTOM’s most recent 2022 U.S. Home Affordability Report, the median price of a single-family home hit a new high of $349,000 during the second quarter. That beats the previous high, reached during the first quarter when the median price was $320,000. Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM, says, until recently, rising prices have largely been offset by low mortgage rates. “Extraordinarily low levels of homes for sale combined with strong demand have caused home prices to soar over the last few years,” Sharga said. “But homes remained relatively affordable due to historically low mortgage rates and rising wages.” Of course, rates have risen so far this year. That changes affordability conditions. It also makes the predicted price slowdown an even more necessary break for buyers. (source)

Unless you’re buying a newly built house, you’re going to be shopping for home that is likely decades old. That can mean charm and character. It can also mean renovations and home improvement projects. As a home buyer, how much you’re willing to take on will depend on things like your budget and DIY skills but also, according to one new survey, how much inconvenience you’re willing to endure. The survey found most homeowners believe home improvement and renovation projects always take longer than originally estimated. In fact, among respondents, 55 percent of men and 49 percent of women feel having work done on the house, even if you’re hiring it out, means committing to an indefinite schedule of contractors, dust, and chaos. Fortunately, despite some negative expectations, the vast majority of Americans have confidence in their ability to oversee a home renovation, with 74 percent of participants saying they’d be comfortable taking one on. It’s something to consider. After all, how comfortable and willing you are to manage a project may become a big factor when deciding on which house to buy. (source)

Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index surveys Americans and asks them for their perception of the housing market and economy. Survey respondents are asked whether they think now is a good time to buy or sell a home, what they expect mortgage rates and home prices to do, and how they feel about their job and finances. In June, the index fell from the month before, as more participants expressed caution about the current housing market. Still, their long-term expectations were positive. In fact, the number who believe home prices and mortgage rates will continue to climb over the next 12 months fell from the month before. The net share of Americans who say prices will go up fell 7 percent and the number who say mortgage rates will decline increased 4 percent. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says the results match Fannie’s Mae’s forecast. “As a whole, this month’s HPSI results are consistent with our forecast of a slowing housing market through the rest of this year and next,” Duncan said. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week from one week earlier. Rates fell for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. It was the second consecutive week rates have declined. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says rates have been dropping but remain higher than last year. “Mortgage rates decreased for the second week in a row, as growing concerns over an economic slowdown and increased recessionary risks kept Treasury yields lower,” Kan said. “Rates are still significantly higher than they were a year ago, which is why applications for home purchases and refinances remain depressed.” Last week, applications fell 5.4 percent, with an 8 percent drop in refinance activity. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

The best way to get a feel for whether or not a home for sale fits your needs is to see it in person. Nothing beats actually walking through a house to get a sense of its layout and how it would accommodate your life. That’s why, when buyers find a listing they’re really interested in, they typically schedule a time to go see it before deciding whether or not to make an offer. How many showings a listed home garners is an excellent indicator of how many buyers are interested in it. Which is why measuring the average number of showings per listing is an effective way to gauge how much competition today’s buyers should expect when shopping for a house. Put simply, when the number of showings per listing is high, competition and bidding wars are more common. So how many showings are listings getting on average these days? According to one recent analysis, the number of showings per listing has begun to fall. In fact, average showings dropped to 7 in May from 8.49 the month before. That’s down about 13 percent from last year at the same time. It’s also a sign that the market has slowed and buyer activity this summer isn’t quite as intense as it was last year. (source)

Home prices had already been increasing by the time the pandemic started. After it began, though, prices shot up even faster than before. Since then, double-digit, year-over-year increases have been common in a lot of markets. But, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index – which covers data through the end of April – the rate of increase has finally showed signs of slowing. The data found that, while prices continue to increase at a higher than normal pace, the rate of increase is now decelerating. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P, says the market is strong but showing signs that it may begin to normalize soon. “We continue to observe very broad strength in the housing market, as all 20 cities notched double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in April,” Lazzara said. “In contrast with the past five months, when prices in most cities accelerated, in April only nine cities saw prices rise faster than they had done in March.” Lazzara expects the trend to continue, with price increases moderating in the months to come. (source)

The housing market is in transition. Conditions are changing quickly and that can be scary for prospective home buyers. But while the market is definitely changing, not all change has to be scary. For example, a new report from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website found the inventory of homes for sale has changed for the better. The number of homes for sale improved in June, with available listings climbing at their fastest pace ever. In fact, active inventory was up 18.7 percent year-over-year. That’s great news for home buyers, as it means more homes to choose from and less competition between buyers. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says the gains have been particularly good for move-up buyers. “A deeper dive into June’s inventory gains by square footage reveals potential opportunities for move-up buyers, as newly listed homes skewed larger,” Hale said. “In other words, the first wave of supply improvements may be particularly opportune for summer sellers looking to upgrade from their starter homes.” (source)