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New home sales data is volatile and often revised. Mostly that’s because a sale is counted when a contract is signed and can be for a house that hasn’t even begun construction. But while sales data is subject to revision, the 20.5 percent increase recently reported by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau still seems encouraging for the market. The month-over-month increase pushed sales 15.4 percent higher than they were last year at the same time. It also came before mortgage rates began their recent retreat. Jing Fu, the National Association of Home Builders’ senior director of forecasting and analysis, says more improvement is likely on the way. “According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined by 32 basis points over the past four weeks and now sits at … its lowest level since early October 2024,” Fu said. “This downward trend in rates, combined with the recent Fed interest rate cut, signals a positive outlook for future housing demand.” (source)

Sales of previously owned homes were flat in August from one month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. Nationally, sales were down 0.2 percent month-over-month, with increases in the Midwest and West but decreases in the Northeast and South. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says sluggish sales may soon ramp up. “Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” Yun said. “However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.” There is currently a 4.6-month supply of unsold homes for sale, which is up from a 4.2-month supply last year at this time. Also in the report, the NAR found the median price for existing homes sold in August was $422,600, 2 percent above last year when the median price was $414,200. (source)

Each month, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases an outlook detailing what they think’s ahead for the housing market and economy. The outlook covers everything from economic growth to mortgage rates and forecasts where they’ll be at the end of this year and through 2026. According to its September forecast, Fannie Mae sees improvement on the way. For starters, the group believes mortgage rates will fall slightly lower by the end of the year and drop roughly another half point by December 2026. With rates trending lower, mortgage originations should rise. Fannie Mae expects next year’s home sales total to improve significantly on this year’s. They also expect rising refinancing activity, as homeowners who purchased homes over the past few years look to lower their rate. Overall, the group doesn’t foresee any major changes but does believe conditions will ease for both homeowners and buyers over the next 15 months. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week from one week earlier. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, flat for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and up slightly from the week before for 15-year fixed-rate loans. Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, says the 30-year fixed rate is now at its lowest level in a year. “Mortgage rates declined further last week, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to its lowest level since last September …,” Fratantoni said. “Interest rates generally have moved up following the FOMC meeting last week but remain in a range that should continue to lead to increased refinance activity.” Last week, refinance activity was up 1 percent while purchase application demand was flat from the week before. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Not all homes are move-in ready. In fact, most aren’t. Even new homes leave a lot of the finishing touches up to the new owners. In other words, you’re going to have to put in some work no matter what house you buy. How much, though, is up to you. You can look for something that’s relatively ready to go or find a house that needs some love. These days, a lot of buyers are passing on higher priced turn-key options in favor of getting their hands dirty. In fact, according to one new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, fixer-uppers are hot. Listings that are marketed as fixer-uppers received 52 percent more page views compared to comparable older homes. Danielle Hale, the site’s chief economist, says affordability is behind the trend. “Fixer-uppers give buyers a way to break into the housing market at a time when affordability is still stretched thin,” Hale said. “For those with the vision and a toolbox, fixer-uppers provide both a starting point in the market and the chance to create a home that’s truly their own.” (source)

“Normal” is tough to define. But when it comes to housing affordability, most potential home buyers can agree the past several years have felt anything but normal. Skyrocketing prices, elevated mortgage rates, and competition from other buyers have made finding an affordable house seem almost impossible. Fortunately, the market has calmed recently and, according to one new study, may even be on track to return to normal. Per the report, if both home price and wage growth hold at today’s pace, mortgage rates would only need to fall a little bit further for the market to be on the right track. In fact, the market would return to normal conditions within the next few years. And, If home prices were to flatten or decline even a little, we’d be back to normal even sooner. Put another way, if current trends continue and rates ease, a balanced and affordable housing market may be closer than you think. (source)

Spring is known as the housing market’s hottest time of year. It’s also usually the best time of year to sell a house. But is it the best time to buy? Well, not according to one new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website. The group’s 2025 Best Time To Buy Report found the best time for buyers is actually fall – and it’s fast approaching. In fact, the week of October 12-18 is considered the time to buy, as it provides a combination of more available listings and less competition from other buyers. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says buyers may also find savings. “After years of constrained conditions, the 2025 housing market is giving buyers something they haven’t had in a long time: options,” Hale said. “I expect this market momentum shift to magnify typical seasonal trends that favor home buyers in the fall. During the week of October 12-18, data suggest that buyers will find more homes for sale, less competition from other shoppers, and potential average savings of more than $15,000 compared to this summer’s peak prices.” (source)

The fastest way out of a shortage of available homes for sale is building more new homes. That’s why new home construction ramped up over the past several years. There were too few homes for sale to satisfy the number of interested buyers and building was the best way out of the problem. Now, though, the tables may have turned. Buyer demand has slowed and the number of available new homes for sale is high. That’s causing residential construction to stall. In fact, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single-family housing starts fell 7 percent month-over-month in August, with new housing projects down 17 percent in the South – where new home inventory is highest. But while the news isn’t good for home builders, it may be for buyers, who could benefit from better deals on new homes as builders attempt to sell the available supply. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell again last week. Rates were down from the week before across most loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Rates are now at the lowest level since last October and borrowers are noticing. In fact, the MBA’s measure of purchase and refinance activity was up nearly 30 percent last week. Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, says refinancing activity saw the biggest boost. “Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week,” Fratantoni said. “Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey. Almost 60 percent of applications were for refinances, but there was also a pickup in purchase applications.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is a monthly measure of how confident builders are in the market for newly built homes. The index is based on a survey of builders and is considered an important indicator for the market since home builders have to know when, where, and what Americans want to buy in order to be successful. If builders are feeling confident and building more homes, chances are conditions are good and buyers are interested. According to the most recent survey, overall confidence was unchanged in September but the index component measuring future expectations reached a six-month high. Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, says lower mortgage rates may be behind the increasing optimism. “NAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans,” Dietz said. “Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks … this is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.” (source)