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Predicting the future isn’t easy. But, when it comes to the economy and housing market, there are indicators and trends that can give you a fairly good idea of where things are headed. For example, Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist, recently told HousingWire that he believes the housing market is entering a golden period. His forecast is based on a few key indicators. One is the job market. With the unemployment rate below 4 percent and expected to stay low, it is reasonable to believe that more Americans will feel secure in their income and ready to buy. Those prospective home buyers may also be motivated by the fact that mortgage rates are now hovering just above historic lows. The combination of financial security and affordable financing should lead to increasing home sales. And while boosted demand may push prices higher, Nothaft doesn’t expect a dramatic spike. In short, his expectation is that housing fundamentals will stay relatively steady through the end of next year. “It’s possible that a year from now there could be a full-blown crisis in the Middle East that’s going to cause oil prices to skyrocket and trigger a recession, but absent something like that, we see a real golden period for housing through at least the next year,†Nothaft said. More here.

When you’re young, there are many things that might lead you to look for a new place to live. Maybe you’re moving because you want to be closer to a new job or you’ve started a family and need more space. Whatever the case, there’s nothing strange about being on the move when you’re young. But, according to a new analysis, young adults in America today are moving more often than previous generations did. In fact, the percentage of 25-to-34 year olds who have lived in their home for less than two years has risen to 45.3 percent in recent years. By comparison, it was 33.8 percent in 1960. So what accounts for millennials’ mobility? Well one big difference between today’s young adults and past generations is that younger Americans tend to get married later in life these days. That means, settling down and establishing a long-term living situation is less of a priority. There have also been changes to the way the typical young American builds a career. Where, in the past, it was common to get a job and stay with the same company for many years, today young adults are more likely to move from one job to the next in order to achieve their professional goals. More here.

According to the latest Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, average mortgage rates fell last week from the week before. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. Naturally, the decline led to an increase in demand for mortgage loans. In fact, application demand was up 8.1 percent from the week before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said most of the improvement was due to rising refinance activity. “Borrowers responded to these lower rates, leading to a 14 percent increase in refinance applications,†Kan said. “Although refinance activity slowed in September compared to August, the months together were the strongest since October 2016. The slight changes in rates are still causing large swings in refinance volume, and we expect this sensitivity to persist.†Demand for loans to buy homes also rose and is now 10 percent higher than it was last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

Freddie Mac’s most recent forecast is good news for anyone concerned that there’s trouble ahead for the housing market. That’s because, despite recent reports of a potential economic slowdown, the market is well positioned to remain strong. Why? Well, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, points to mortgage rates as one factor stirring interest in buying a home. “Despite fears of an economic slowdown, the housing market continues to be a bright spot in the economy,†Khater said. “While mortgage rates have ticked up in recent weeks, they remain lower than they were a year ago which will help boost sales headed into the fall.†In addition to low mortgage rates, there is evidence that more new homes are being built. And the additional supply should help keep home prices from spiking. Already, home price increases have slowed significantly. According to the forecast, prices are only expected to be up 3.4 percent in 2019, which is in line with long-term growth. In other words, affordability conditions are expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future and, with more homes available to buyers, Americans looking to buy a home will have more homes to choose from and fewer worries about rising costs. More here.

In the days before the industrial revolution, motorized vehicles, and grocery stores, people were much more likely to have to rely on one another to provide things that would otherwise be difficult to come by. That’s where the idea of borrowing a cup of sugar from your neighbor comes from. In short, there was a time neighbors really did sometimes have to borrow sugar from each other. These days, that’s obviously less common or necessary. But a new survey looks at just what being neighborly means in the modern world. The results show that about half of homeowners over the age of 25 say they’d be likely to ask their neighbor for help or to borrow something from them. So going to neighbors for help isn’t totally a thing of the past. However, a larger percentage of survey participants identified things like being friendly, quiet, keeping a clean yard and house, and being nice to pets as the characteristics of a good neighbor. Whatever your idea of a good neighbor is, though, it’s also important to remember to be as good a neighbor to yours as you’d have them be to you. More here.

Interest in buying a home never seems to fade too much. Most Americans want to own a home. But despite having a desire to become homeowners, prospective buyers will sometimes postpone their plans due to their financial situation, the economy, market conditions, etc. There are many factors that can influence someone’s decision to buy. This year, mortgage rates may have played a role. At the beginning of the year, rates were increasing and the effect it had on affordability meant some otherwise interested home buyers decided to wait. But now, after rates declined throughout the spring and summer, home buyers are returning to the market. And Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, thinks the trend will continue into next year. “With interest rates expected to remain low, home sales are forecasted to rise in the coming months and into 2020,” Yun said. “Unfortunately, so far in 2019, new home construction is down 2 percent. The hope is that housing starts quickly move into higher gear to meet the higher demand.” In other words, Americans are increasingly feeling like now is a good time to buy.

In another sign that the housing market has regained momentum, new numbers from the U.S Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development show sales of new single-family homes rose 7.1 percent in August, putting them 18 percent above where they were one year earlier. The improvement includes a 16.5 percent sales spike in the West and a 6 percent increase in the South. It also follows an upward revision of July’s sales estimate. In short, it appears declining mortgage rates have led to a surge in buyer demand. This is good news for home buyers, as it may push builders to build more homes. And, if increasing interest in new homes leads to more new homes being built, it’ll help relieve upward pressure on home prices, give buyers more choices, and reduce competition for all homes, both new and previously owned. Also in the report, the median sales price of new homes sold in August was $328,400. The average sales price was $404,200. More here.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates rose slightly last week from the previous week. Rates were up for 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming loan balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. But though it marked the second straight week of increases, rates remain just above historic lows. Still, the increase led to a drop in mortgage demand. In fact, refinance activity fell 15 percent from one week earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says purchase demand was also down though the market for buyers remains strong. “Purchase applications also decreased, likely related to the two-week jump in rates, but still remained 9 percent higher than last year,†Kan said. “The recent data on increased existing-home sales and new residential construction points to the underlying strength in the purchase market this fall.†The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications.

The most recent results of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – considered to be the leading measure of U.S. home prices – show home values are up 3.2 percent over where they were last year at the same time. That’s encouraging news for prospective home buyers and a significant drop from where price growth was just a few years ago. But the news comes with a word of caution. That’s because price growth is slowing at the same time mortgage rates have been declining. And the improvement in affordability levels may already be boosting demand for homes. That could have an affect on price trends in the weeks ahead. Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says recent data shows an uptick in buyer demand. “Home price gains remained positive in low single digits in most cities, and other fundamentals indicate renewed housing demand,†Murphy said. “According to the National Association of Realtors, the YOY change in existing home sales was positive in July for the first time in a number of months, and housing supply tightened since peaking in June.†So what does that mean? It means, if buyer demand increases, competition for available homes could lead slowing prices to speed up once again. More here.

These days, the imbalance between the number of Americans who want to buy a home and the number of homes available for sale is the housing market’s main challenge. With mortgage rates low and the job market strong, there are more people thinking about making a move. But a lack of available homes has held sales back and put upward pressure on prices. There is a solution to this problem, though. And it’s new home construction. That’s why news that home builders are beginning to build smaller, more affordable homes is encouraging. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says there was a particularly strong improvement during the second quarter of this year. “Both our consumer and lender attitudinal surveys hit new highs this month due to near-historically low mortgage rates and generally favorable household balance sheets, but inventory constraints, particularly in the affordable space, continue to hold back housing market sales volume,†Duncan said. “Refreshingly, in the absence of existing stock, home builders appear to be increasingly focused on entry-level homes, as the median square footage of new single-family construction fell 4.3 percent in the second quarter.†More here.