Lawrence Yun Archives

Pending Home Sales Bounce Back In July

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of contracts to buy homes each month. Because the index tracks contract signings, and not closings, it is a good indicator of future existing home sales and an important barometer for the housing market. In July, pending sales rose 1.3 percent and reached the second highest reading in more than a decade. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the news is encouraging but things could be even better. “Amidst tight inventory conditions that have lingered the entire summer, contract activity last month was able to pick up at least modestly in a majority of areas,” Yun said. “More home shoppers having success is good news for the housing market heading into the fall, but buyers still have few choices and little time before deciding to make an offer on a home available for sale. There’s little doubt there’d be more sales activity right now if there were more affordable listings on the market.” Regionally, the West, South, and Northeast all saw increases, with the West registering the largest gains. The Midwest was the only region that didn’t improve month-over-month. More here.

Sales Of Previously Owned Homes Fall 3.2%

Sales of previously owned homes fell in July after four consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors. The 3.2 percent decline was led by a 13.2 percent drop in the Northeast. The Midwest and South also saw decreases, while the West climbed 2.5 percent from the month before. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says inventory and affordability are behind the decline. “Severely restrained inventory and the tightening grip it’s putting on affordability is the primary culprit for the considerable sales slump throughout much of the country last month,” Yun said. “Realtors are reporting diminished buyer traffic because of the scarce number of affordable homes on the market, and the lack of supply is stifling the efforts of many prospective buyers attempting to purchase while mortgage rates hover at historical lows.” But though July’s numbers fell, home sales are still expected to finish the year at their strongest pace since the housing crash and the number of homes available for sale actually improved during the month – though only by 0.9 percent. Currently, unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace. A six month supply is considered healthy for the housing market. More here.

Home Prices Continue To Rise In Most Metros

The National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report found home prices up in 83 percent of the 178 metropolitan areas included in the study. In addition, the national median existing single-family home price was 4.9 percent higher in the second quarter than it was the year before. But though that’s seemingly bad news for buyers, it is an improvement over the first three months of 2016, when 87 percent of metros saw increasing prices and the median price was up 6.1 percent. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says buyers are active in the market but – since there are too few homes available for sale – prices are moving upward. “Steadily improving local job markets and mortgage rates teetering close to all-time lows brought buyers out in force in many large and middle-tier cities,” Yun said. “However, with homebuilding activity still failing to keep up with demand and not enough current homeowners putting their homes up for sale, prices continued their strong ascent – and in many markets at a rate well above income growth.” Because there are fewer houses available for sale, 40 percent of listings sold at or above their list price. In fact, June set a record for the highest share of houses selling above list price. More here.

Pending Sales Hold Steady In June

Pending home sales are an important indicator of the housing market’s health because they measure contract signings, not closings. Since signings typically precede closings by a few weeks, pending sales are seen as a good predictor of where future home sales numbers will fall. In June, the National Association of Realtors found pending sales up just 0.2 percent over the month before. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said there are not enough homes available for sale and it’s preventing interested buyers from taking advantage of otherwise favorable conditions. “With only the Northeast region have an adequate supply of homes for sale, the reoccurring dilemma of strained supply causing a run-up in home prices continues to play out in several markets, leading to the last two months reflecting a slight, early summer cool down after a very active spring,” Yun said. “Unfortunately for prospective buyers trying to take advantage of exceptionally low mortgage rates, housing inventory at the end of last month was down almost 6 percent from a year ago, and home prices are showing little evidence of slowing to a healthier pace that more closely mirrors wage and income growth.” Still, despite contract signings slowing in June, sales of previously owned homes are expected to finish the year at the highest annual pace in 10 years. More here.

Existing Home Sales Top Expectations

Sales of previously owned homes were expected to drop in June, following three consecutive months of gains. But, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors, home resales beat economists’ expectations and rose 1.1 percent from the month before. The improvement keeps sales at their highest annual pace since February 2007. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the housing market has had a solid first half of the year. “Existing sales rose again last month as more traditional buyers and fewer investors were able to close on a home despite many competitive areas with unrelenting supply and demand imbalances,” Yun said. “Sustained job growth as well as this year’s descent in mortgage rates is undoubtedly driving the appetite for home purchase.” Mortgage rates still hovering near all-time lows may, indeed, be making a difference – especially where first-time home buyers are concerned. In June, for example, the share of first timers rose 3 percent and is now at its highest point in four years. Regionally, sales were up over last year in three of four regions, with the West running relatively even with one year earlier. Inventory, however, remains a concern. In June, the number of homes available for sale fell 0.9 percent and is now 5.8 percent lower than it was at the same time last year. More here.

How Renters & Owners See Buying Differently

The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey asks Americans about their confidence in the economy and views on the current real estate market. According to the most recent results, there’s a growing gap between renters and homeowners when it comes to how they view buying a home in today’s market. In fact, the survey found 62 percent of renters said it was a good time to buy – 6 percent lower than it was at the end of last year. On the other hand, 80 percent of current homeowners say now’s a good time to buy. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says there’s a fairly simple reason for the disparity. “Most homeowners appear to realize that if they’re ready to sell, they’ll likely find a buyer rather quickly and be able to use the sizeable equity they’ve accumulated in recent years towards their next home purchase,” Yun said. “Meanwhile, renters interested in buying continue to face minimal choices, strong competition, and home prices growing faster than their incomes.” Combined with the fact that many renters are young, saddled with student loan debt, and facing rapidly rising rent, there are many obstacles facing young Americans who want to buy. However, as more homeowners take advantage of market conditions and put their homes up for sale, the market will balance and help provide more opportunities for potential buyers. More here.

Low Inventory Presents Challenge For Buyers

Home buyers looking to buy a house this year have been met with a more challenging housing market than in years past. Following the housing crash, supply outweighed demand and the market favored buyers. With more homes than buyers, prices were low and buyers had all the negotiating power. This year, on the other hand, higher home prices, fewer choices, and more competition from other buyers have led to increasing concerns about affordability and the likelihood of finding the right house. According to a recent gathering of housing economists at the annual convention of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, low inventory is at the root of all of these issues. That’s because, when there are more buyers than there are homes for sale, home prices increase and sellers have the upper hand. Speakers at the convention, including the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, and Realtor.com’s, Jonathan Smoke, pointed to inventory as key to balancing the market and helping moderate home price increases. “One thing holding back the market is supply,” Smoke said. “Inventory continues to be constrained despite demand.” Yun agreed, calling inventory, “grossly inadequate.” Fortunately, high buyer demand and still-low mortgage rates have helped affordability levels and kept home sales numbers up despite low inventory in many markets. More here.

Pending Sales Down After Consecutive Gains

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index tracks the number of contracts to buy homes signed each month. The Index’s focus on signings, not closings, means it is often a good indicator of future home sales. In May, the Index fell 3.7 percent. It was the first monthly decline after three consecutive months of increases. It was also the first time in two years that results dropped below year-before levels. But despite the seemingly bad news, May’s reading was still the third highest in the past year. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said there are not enough homes available for sale to keep up with the level of demand. “With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale in May and ultimately dragged down contract activity,” Yun said. “Realtors are acknowledging with increasing frequency lately that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market.” All four regions of the country experienced month-over-month declines, according to May’s report. More here

Existing Home Sales Hit 9-Year High

New estimates from the National Association of Realtors show home sales at their highest annual pace since February 2007. In fact, sales of previously owned homes increased 1.8 percent in May, marking the third consecutive monthly sales gain. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says most of the sales activity is from repeat buyers. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” Yun said. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.” Regional results show sales up in the South, West, and Northeast. The Midwest, on the other hand, saw a 6.5 percent decline – though sales remain 3.2 percent above last year’s level. Also in the report, the number of homes available for sale rose in May. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represents a 4.7-month supply. Typically, a six month supply is considered a healthy market. More here.

Pending Home Sales Soar To 10-Year High

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of contracts to buy homes that are signed in any given month. The index is considered a good predictor of future home sales because it tracks signings not closings, which take place roughly a month later. In April, pending sales were up 5.1 percent and reached their highest level since February of 2006. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said demand has exceeded expectations so far this spring. “The ability to sign a contract on a home is slightly exceeding expectations this spring even with the affordability stresses and inventory squeezes affecting buyers in a number of markets,” Yun said. “The building momentum from the over 14 million jobs created since 2010 and the prospect of facing higher rents and mortgage rates down the road appear to be bringing more interested buyers into the market.” Markets in the South and West were particularly strong in April, with both seeing double-digit increases over the month before. Overall, the number of signed contracts to buy homes was 4.6 percent higher than it was at the same time last year. More here.