These days, it isn’t easy to find a deal. In most markets, there are more home buyers than there are available homes for sale. That puts upward pressure on prices, causes bidding wars, and means fewer bargains for buyers. So what can a budget-minded home shopper do? Well, new numbers from ATTOM Data Solutions offer a clue. Their analysis looked at every calendar day over the past eight years with at least 10,000 home sales and calculated the premium or discount buyers paid on that day. The results help zero in on the days and months when home buyers can expect to get the best deal on a house. For example, the analysis determined that buyers who closed in October paid the smallest premium of any month, at 2.9 percent. And while that’s still above market value, it isn’t the 11.5 percent May buyers pay or the 9 percent premium buyers pay in June. In other words, October is the best month for getting a good deal. The best individual days to buy, on the other hand, were mostly found in December. Overall, however, buyers who closed in October, November, December or January did better than those who waited until spring. (source)

Each month, Fannie Mae conducts a survey to gauge how Americans feel about the housing market. The survey asks participants whether they think now is a good time to buy or sell a home, whether they think home prices and mortgage rates will rise or fall, and whether or not they feel secure in their job and finances. In September, the Home Purchase Sentiment Index remained fairly steady. Americans continue to be optimistic about selling a home in today’s market, with 74 percent of respondents saying now is a good time to sell. Buying sentiment, however, fell from the month before. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says home prices are the reason. “The survey’s story is also largely unchanged: Consumers feel it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell – and they continue to cite high home prices as the primary reason,†Duncan said. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates moved up last week from the week before. Rates were up across all loan categories including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. The increases pushed rates to their highest level since July and led to an almost 10 percent drop in refinance activity. Purchase applications also fell, sliding 2 percent week over week. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says the average loan balance is increasing. “Government purchase applications were up over 1 percent, but that was still not enough to bring down the average loan balance of $410,000,†Kan said. “With home-price appreciation and sales prices remaining very elevated, applications for higher balance, conventional loans still dominate the mix of activity.†The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

If you want to know how likely a listing is to end up in a bidding war, try to find out how many buyers have scheduled showings to see it. A lot of showings means a lot of interested buyers. It also means the home is likely to get multiple offers and an amount over the seller’s asking price. The same concept applies when looking at the overall housing market. After all, showings, for obvious reasons, are a good gauge of buyer interest. So you can get a good feel for where the market might be headed by looking at the number of showings scheduled during any given time period. For example, according to one recent analysis, showing activity fell in August, dropping 10.7 percent year over year. The decline was led by an 18 percent drop in the Northeast and a 9.2 percent drop in the West. Of course, the market typically slows down as the summer market ends, but a drop in showings is also an indication that hopeful fall home buyers can expect to see less competition and fewer bidding wars when out shopping for a house to buy. (source)

When compared to pre-pandemic levels, the number of homes for sale is about 50 percent lower than normal. That’s why prices have been increasing and homes have been selling so quickly. Simply put, there isn’t enough inventory to satisfy the number of buyers out there. The good news is, though, things are getting better. In fact, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, there were 646,053 available homes for sale in September. That’s the highest it’s been all year. Danielle Hale, the site’s chief economist, says the news is encouraging, but the market remains competitive. “This September, buyers had more options than they’ve had all year and while that’s typical of early fall, that’s not what happened in 2020,†Hale said. “Still, it’s important to remember that while buyers may have an easier time this fall than they did in the spring, the market remains more competitive than it has been historically at this time of year.†(source)

Location obviously matters when choosing a house to buy. Not only will it determine how far you are from friends, family, and the things you need, it’ll also determine how much you pay. Home prices and affordability can vary from one neighborhood, city, and state to the next. And how much they vary can be surprising. For example, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ most recent quarterly U.S. Home Affordability Report, the annual income you need to make in order to comfortably afford buying a home ranges from nearly $250,000 in Manhattan to $16,000 in Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania. That’s a big difference. Nationally, the east and west coasts are the most expensive areas to buy, as you might expect. The most affordable areas are mostly found in the Midwest and South. However, there are still major metro areas where buying remains affordable, even in this challenging market. Among them, the largest include parts of Chicago, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Detroit. (source)

A rising number of homes available for sale helped cool the housing market after a hot spring and early summer. It also helped home buyers find homes to buy. In fact, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors, the number of signed contracts to buy homes was 8.1 percent higher in August than the month before. The rebound was significant and followed two straight months of declines. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says home buyers came back. “Rising inventory and moderating price conditions are bringing buyers back to the market,†Yun said. “Affordability, however, remains challenging as home price gains are roughly three times wage growth.†For that reason, contract signings have been stronger where homes are more affordable. The Midwest and South, for example, have seen more activity than the Northeast and West. In fact, among the country’s largest metro areas, the most improved markets were found in Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, according to the NAR report. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates increased last week from the week before. Rates were up for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says rates moved higher due to increasing optimism in the economy. “Increased optimism about the strength of the economy pushed Treasury yields higher following last week’s FOMC meeting,†Kan said. “Mortgage rates in response rose across all loan types with the benchmark 30-year fixed rate reaching its highest level since early July 2021.†Rates remain low, however, and last week’s increases barely slowed demand for loans to buy homes. In fact, demand for home purchase loans only fell 1 percent from one week earlier. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications.

Home prices have been increasing for more than just the past few months. But, according to newly released numbers from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the increases seen this summer were widespread, consistent, and, in some cases, record setting. S&P’s index, which is among the leading measures of U.S. home prices, shows that prices were up nearly 20 percent over year-before levels in July. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P, says the increases have been extraordinary. “The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,†Lazzara said. “Home prices in 19 of our 20 cities now stand at all-time highs, with the sole outlier (Chicago) only 0.3 percent below its 2006 peak.†While increasing prices are good for home sellers, they have put pressure on affordability levels. Fortunately, the rate of increases is expected to slow somewhat as the market begins to cool this fall. (source)

Sales of newly built single-family homes rose more than economists expected in August, marking the second-consecutive month of gains. The 1.5 percent increase pushed sales to a 740,000-unit annual rate and included spikes of 26 percent in the Northeast and 6 percent in the West. But while the sales gains are positive news for the housing market, they continue to lag behind last year’s levels – with sales 24.3 percent lower than they were at the same time one year earlier. The numbers, from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, also showed that the supply of available new homes for sale has now risen to the highest level in 13 years. In fact, there is now a 6.1-month supply of new homes for sale at the current sales pace. And, with the market starved for supply, the growing number of available new homes is encouraging, as it should help slow price increases and provide home buyers with more choices. (source)