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Monthly Archives: August 2019

Will Rising Demand Slow Inventory Gains?

The latest Housing Trend report from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website is a mix of good and bad news. For example, the report shows that the number of Americans who feel now is a good time to buy a house has risen. Driven by falling mortgage rates, more potential home buyers are hitting the market. But while that’s good news – as it means affordability conditions have improved and it’s motivating buyers – it also puts pressure on inventory levels. Inventory refers to the number of homes available for sale. Right now, inventory is lower than normal in many markets, though it has seen improvement. In fact, there’ve been 10 months of consecutive growth, which has helped balance the market, slow price increases, and give buyers more choices. But, if the number of interested buyers increases at a faster rate than the number of homes for sale, it could reverse that trend and cause price increases to accelerate. This is an important factor to keep an eye on, as it will determine what conditions prospective buyers and sellers encounter when it’s time for them to make a move. More here.

Average Mortgage Rates Drop To 3-Year Low

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell across all loan categories last week, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. The drop brought rates to their lowest level since November 2016 and caused a surge in refinance activity. In fact, the Refinance Index was up 37 percent from the previous week and 196 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says refinance activity – which is more responsive to rate fluctuations – has spiked the past two weeks. “In just the last two weeks, rates have decreased 15 basis points and the refinance index has increased more than 50 percent, reaching its highest level since July 2016,” Kan said. But while low rates have motivated homeowners to refinance, they’ve also boosted loans to buy homes. Last week, demand for purchase applications was 12 percent higher than last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

How Would You Pay For A Home Improvement Project?

For most buyers, finding a house that doesn’t require a major renovation is a priority. After going through the buying process, moving, and settling in, few of us want to immediately get started on a huge home improvement project. But even if the house you buy is in perfect shape, it’ll require maintenance. Eventually, you may even want to make some changes, redo the bathroom, or remodel the kitchen. According to one recent survey from Freedom Debt Relief, 69 percent of homeowners plan on renovating their home in the next five years. That means, the majority of homeowners will be taking on a home improvement project in the near future. But how will they pay for it? The survey’s results show nearly 75 percent of them plan on taking on debt to do it. Michael Micheletti, director of corporate communications for Freedom Debt Relief, says homeowners should think carefully before funding their home projects with debt. “Homeowners would be wise to save as much as possible, and look at their overall financial position before taking on even more debt – debt that could disrupt their bigger financial picture,” Micheletti said. More here.

Does Your Job Determine Where You Live?

Work is a fact of life. For the vast majority of us, it’s unavoidable. After all, unless you’re independently wealthy, you probably need to work for a living. And if you do, you most likely want to live fairly close to where you do it. But do most people work where they want to live or live where they found work? Well, according to one new study, 81 percent of survey respondents said they moved because they found a new job. That means, for most movers, finding somewhere to live close to the office was part of the reason they changed their address. Among these movers, the top industries they relocated to work in were technology, finance and insurance, education, medical and health care, and manufacturing. Conversely, the share of movers who said they found somewhere to live, then looked for a job, came in at 62 percent. But what is the wisest move for you? Well, that depends. However, if you’re considering moving for a job, you should know that 25 percent of survey participants who moved for work said they regretted relocating for a job. More here.

Bidding Wars Fall To Lowest Point Since 2011

Competition can sometimes be fun. But shopping for a house to buy isn’t one of those times. When it comes to buying a home, competition usually leads to stress and disappointment. That’s why data from one new national report is good news for potential home buyers. According to the report, the housing market is far less competitive than it was last year at this time. In fact, bidding wars are at their lowest point since 2011. Additionally, today’s buyer is less than half as likely to face a competing offer than they were at this time last year. And the year-over-year decline in bidding wars was significant. Last July, nearly half of buyers faced competition when making an offer. This July, the share of buyers facing competition was just 11.2 percent. That’s encouraging, of course. However, the amount of competition you face will depend on the market you’re shopping in. Hot markets like San Francisco, San Diego, and Boston still have a fair amount of competition, although they’re still far less competitive than they were last summer. More here.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index Hits Record High

Americans are feeling financially confident and it’s good news for the housing market, according to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae. The survey – which measures consumers’ perceptions of buying and selling a home, job security, mortgage rates, prices, etc. – hit a new high in July. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says it’s due to favorable mortgage rates and increased job confidence. “Consumer job confidence and favorable mortgage rate expectations lifted the HPSI to a new survey high in July, despite ongoing housing supply and affordability challenges,” Duncan said. “Consumers appear to have shaken off a winter slump in sentiment amid strong income gains. Therefore, sentiment is positioned to take advantage of any supply that comes to market, particularly in the affordable category.” In other words, Americans are feeling good about their income and may be ready to buy. In fact, the survey found a 3 percent month-over-month increase in the number of respondents who said now was a good time to buy a house. More here.

30-Year Rates Fall To Lowest Level Since 2016

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. The decline was significant and largely brought on by the beginning of a trade war with China. Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, said lower rates will likely spur refinance activity. “The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected last week, but the bigger influence on the financial markets was the beginning of a trade war with China. The result was a sharp drop in mortgage rates which will likely draw many refinance borrowers into the market in the coming weeks,” Fratantoni said. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans fell to their lowest level since November 2016 and, as a result, refinance activity was up 12 percent from one week earlier. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

Recessions Typically Have Little Impact On Market

You don’t have to be an economist to know that recessions aren’t good. And, because the memory of the Great Recession and housing crash is still fresh, it’s natural that prospective home buyers and sellers worry when they hear another one could be on the way. But, according to a recent survey of housing experts and economists, that worry may be overblown. Why? Well, when you look at the 1,039 times since 1997 that states have been in recession during a given month, home price appreciation remained positive 81 percent of the time – which is roughly the same as during periods of economic growth. In other words, though home prices plummeted during the Great Recession, that was atypical. The vast majority of the time, a recession has little effect on home prices. And, since today’s market suffers from too little inventory rather than too much, there is much less risk than there was during the last recession. In short, recessions aren’t good for the housing market but there’s little reason to worry that the next one will cause another home price collapse. More here.

Do Grocery Stores Affect Home Prices?

Living close to a grocery store is a plus. It may not be your top priority when you’re out shopping for a house, but there’s no denying that the convenience of having a good store in the neighborhood is appealing. That’s why a recent analysis from ATTOM Data Solutions looked at zip codes that had at least one Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, or ALDI location to see which was best for area home values. And though it didn’t definitively prove the stores had a direct impact on prices, it did have some interesting findings. For example, according to the results, homes near a Trader Joe’s brought the biggest return on investment when sold. In fact, the average home seller ROI was 51 percent, compared to Whole Foods which saw a 41 percent return and ALDI at 34 percent. On the other hand, when looking at home price appreciation over the past five years, zip codes with an ALDI were the clear winners, having the fastest growing values of the three. Homes in neighborhoods near an ALDI saw an average price appreciation of 42 percent, while home prices near a Whole Foods rose 31 percent and areas with a Trader Joe’s increased 33 percent. More here.

How Home Equity Helps Build Wealth

Buying a home is more than just finding a place to live. It’s an investment. Which means, as you pay down your mortgage and your home’s value appreciates over time, you build up equity. In simple terms, equity is the difference between what you owe on your home and its current market value. It’s also one of the primary arguments for homeownership and the reason it’s seen as being a vital part of achieving the American Dream. In short, it helps Americans build wealth. For example, a recent analysis of the housing market over the past 10 years found that the average equity per borrower increased from around $75,000 in the first quarter of 2010 to $171,000 in the first quarter of 2019. Of course, the housing crash and subsequent price recovery has a lot to do with just how much equity homeowners were able to accumulate over the past 10 years. But, though those results may not be typical, they arde a good illustration of how financially beneficial homeownership can be. By comparison, single-family rents increased 33 percent over the same time period. But rather than watching an investment grow, renters – unlike homeowners – gained nothing from that increase but a higher monthly payment. More here.