mortgage rates Archives

Pending Home Sales Soar To 10-Year High

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of contracts to buy homes that are signed in any given month. The index is considered a good predictor of future home sales because it tracks signings not closings, which take place roughly a month later. In April, pending sales were up 5.1 percent and reached their highest level since February of 2006. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said demand has exceeded expectations so far this spring. “The ability to sign a contract on a home is slightly exceeding expectations this spring even with the affordability stresses and inventory squeezes affecting buyers in a number of markets,” Yun said. “The building momentum from the over 14 million jobs created since 2010 and the prospect of facing higher rents and mortgage rates down the road appear to be bringing more interested buyers into the market.” Markets in the South and West were particularly strong in April, with both seeing double-digit increases over the month before. Overall, the number of signed contracts to buy homes was 4.6 percent higher than it was at the same time last year. More here.

Sales Of Existing Homes Up In April

Sales of previously owned homes rose for the second-consecutive month, according to new numbers released by the National Association of Realtors. In April, existing-home sales – which includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops – increased 1.7 percent, beating economists’ expectations and pushing sales 6 percent above last year’s level. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said April’s increase is a sign that the housing market is slowly building momentum. “Primarily driven by a convincing jump in the Midwest, where home prices are most affordable, sales activity overall was at a healthy pace last month as very low mortgage rates and modest seasonal inventory gains encouraged more households to search for and close on a home,” Yun said. “Except for in the West – where supply shortages and stark price growth are hampering buyers the most – sales are meaningfully higher than a year ago in much of the country.” A look at regional results shows the South and West both down slightly from the month before, while the Northeast posted a 2.8 percent improvement and the Midwest surged 12.1 percent. Also in the report, the number of homes available for sale rose 9.2 percent. More here.

Spring Rebound To Follow Slow 1st Quarter

Much like last year, the first quarter of 2016 was slower than expected. Both the housing market and broader economy showed weakness amid harsh winter weather and global economic uncertainty. But also like last year, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group says economic growth should rebound in the spring and continue to grow through the remainder of the year. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says an uptick in hours worked and average hourly earnings should help support consumer spending, which will help boost the economy. He also expects home sales to climb. “Home sales are expected to pick up heading into the spring season amid the backdrop of declining mortgage rates, rising pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications, and continued easing of lending standards on residential mortgage loans,” Duncan said. “Meanwhile, the homeownership rate showed signs of stabilizing during the first quarter of this year, as the relatively high homeownership rates among Baby Boomers have helped offset low homeownership rates among Millennials, many of whom remain on the sidelines due to ongoing affordability issues.” More here.

Home Sales See Best 1st Quarter Since 2007

So far this year, there has been a lot of talk about higher home prices, declining affordability, and a lack of available homes for sale. But, according to the National Association of Realtors, demand remains strong and sales of previously owned homes just had their best first quarter since 2007. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the housing market continues to make gains despite the challenges facing home buyers this spring. “The housing market continues to expand at a moderate pace in spite of the fact that home prices are rising too fast in some areas because of insufficient supply fueled by the grossly inadequate number of new single-family homes being constructed,” Yun said. “The good news is that pending sales in recent months have remained stable and should support a modest gain in home sales heading into the summer.” Yun is forecasting home sales to finish the year at their strongest pace in a decade. With mortgage rates still historically low and an improved job market, home buyers are showing that they aren’t deterred by higher prices. However, Yun cautions that there needs to be an increase in the number of homes for sale in order to meet the level of demand from buyers and keep prices affordable. More here.

Mortgage Rates Hover Near Three-Year Lows

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, mortgage rates fell across all loan categories last week, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Rates were down from the week before and started the week at their lowest point in three years. Lynn Fisher, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, told CNBC that mortgage rates continue to defy expectations. “Despite expectations that rates would slowly rise this year, the 30-year fixed rate last week was 18 basis points lower than a year ago, continuing to provide a favorable rate environment for the housing market,” Fisher said. Favorable rates, however, failed to spur much demand for mortgage loan applications. In fact, mortgage application demand was essentially flat from the week before, with both the refinance and purchase index up less than one percent. On the other hand, when compared to last year, refinance demand is now up 23 percent and applications for loans to buy homes have increased 14 percent. The MBA’s weekly applications survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

More Homeowners See Opportunity To Sell

A combination of higher home prices and strong buyer demand is convincing more current homeowners that selling their house may be a good idea. According to Fannie Mae’s most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index – which measures Americans attitudes toward buying and selling a home, renting, household finances, mortgage rates, etc. – April saw a 16 percent increase in the number of consumers who said now was a good time to sell a house. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says that could be good news for both current homeowners and prospective buyers. “We can partially attribute the sizable gain in April in home selling optimism both to a correction for last month’s unexpected dip and to typical seasonal strength in housing activity in the spring and summer,” Duncan said. “Even after accounting for these factors, tight housing supply has led to renewed strength in home price appreciation, making selling a home a more attractive prospect this year in particular. This improved sentiment could provide an extra boost of much-needed supply for the spring selling season.” An increase in available homes for sale would help balance the market, slow down the rate of home price increases, and provide house hunters with more homes to choose from. More here.

Majority Of Americans Say It’s Time To Buy

According to a recently conducted poll from Gallup, 66 percent of Americans say it’s a good time to buy a house. That’s up 12 percent from where it was following the housing crash but down slightly from the past few years. Most likely, the recent dip in optimism is a reaction to higher home prices. Low prices and record mortgage rates made buying a house an attractive proposition in the years following the crash. However, as surging demand depleted the stock of houses available for sale, home values shot up. Now, despite mortgage rates still near record lows and a vastly improved job market, Americans’ views of the housing market have begun to change. Though they are still positive, there is a growing concern that buying a house will soon become unaffordable for some buyers. This could explain why some parts of the country are more pessimistic than others. For example, people in the Midwest and South were generally more optimistic than those in the West, where home prices rebounded more quickly. It also explains why older and more financially secure Americans have the most positive perceptions of buying a house. Overall, however, Americans are eager to become homeowners. In fact, 59 percent of non-homeowners say they think they’ll buy a house in the next 10 years. More here.

Are Low Rates Offsetting Higher Home Prices?

With home prices largely recovered from the crash, affordability is once again a concern for the average American home buyer. In fact, there has been a lot of discussion recently about whether higher prices will lead to a drop in buyer demand or if still low mortgage rates and a better job market will help keep demand high and affordability conditions favorable. According to Black Knight Financial’s latest Mortgage Monitor, demand is still healthy but home price increases have begun to cut into the amount of savings buyers can expect from historically low rates. For example, without factoring in home price movement, recent mortgage rate declines would be saving buyers approximately $44 a month on their monthly payment. However, when including the rate of price gains, that savings falls to $18. Ben Graboske, Black Knight’s data and analytics SVP, says home prices are muting the effect low mortgage rates are having on housing affordability. “By and large, borrowers are still seeing net reductions in monthly payments across the country heading into the early home buying season,” Graboske said. “In some areas though, prices are appreciating so quickly that they may have fully offset any savings from rate declines.” However, declining mortgage rates have had a positive impact on housing affordability. According to Graboske, without falling rates, buyers would have been paying an additional $28 a month for the median-priced home compared to the end of last year. More here.

Pending Home Sales Signal Strong Spring

For the second straight month, pending home sales increased from the month before, according to new numbers released by the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index – which measures contract signings not closed sales – was up 1.4 percent from the previous month and reached its highest reading in almost a year. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says March’s increase is a sign that the spring buying season is off to a solid start. “Despite supply deficiencies in plenty of areas, contract activity was fairly strong in a majority of markets in March,” Yun said. “This spring’s surprisingly low mortgage rates are easing some of the affordability pressures potential buyers are experiencing and are taking away some of the sting from home prices that are still rising too fast above wage growth.” Though affordability concerns persist, there is still strong demand from buyers – which is being sustained both by low borrowing costs and an improved job market. Regionally, only the West saw a decline in March, falling 1.8 percent from the month before. The Northeast and South were both up approximately 3 percent, while the Midwest was mostly flat. More here.

Outlook Unchanged Despite Slow Growth

Despite the fact that economic growth stalled during the first quarter of the year, the outlook for the remainder of the year has not changed, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group’s April 2016 Economic and Housing Outlook. In fact, the group’s latest forecast calls for a pickup in consumer spending and overall growth during the second quarter. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says the housing market should also remain steady, despite some challenges. “Our forecast for housing activity, mortgage rates, and mortgage originations are little changed in the April forecast,” Duncan said. “We expect total mortgage originations to decline about 9 percent in 2016 to $1.56 trillion, with a refinance share of 40 percent. Sustained improvement in the labor market and personal incomes among young adults should draw more potential home buyers into the housing market, but many will continue to face affordability challenges. Home price growth has been rising at a faster clip than incomes, and the increasing supply of single-family housing is skewed toward larger and less affordable homes. These factors continue to weigh on housing affordability, particularly for first-time home buyers.” More here.