Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a monthly outlook covering what they believe is ahead for the housing market and overall economy. According to its August commentary, the group still expects the economy to slow at some point in coming months, despite data continuing to show it stronger than expected. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says they expect a mild recession, though they don’t expect it will affect the housing market much. “Our base case forecast is a mild recession, and it looks as though the alternative is a soft landing, which is slow growth with only a small increase in unemployment,” Duncan explained. “The difference between those two alternative outcomes is not expected to make much difference to home sales.” The group believes that, whether or not the economy avoids a recession, housing market dynamics are unlikely to change due to offsetting issues of available inventory, affordability, wage growth, and consumer confidence. (source)
