New home sales data is volatile and often revised. Mostly that’s because a sale is counted when a contract is signed and can be for a house that hasn’t even begun construction. But while sales data is subject to revision, the 20.5 percent increase recently reported by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau still seems encouraging for the market. The month-over-month increase pushed sales 15.4 percent higher than they were last year at the same time. It also came before mortgage rates began their recent retreat. Jing Fu, the National Association of Home Builders’ senior director of forecasting and analysis, says more improvement is likely on the way. “According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined by 32 basis points over the past four weeks and now sits at … its lowest level since early October 2024,” Fu said. “This downward trend in rates, combined with the recent Fed interest rate cut, signals a positive outlook for future housing demand.” (source)
