Each month, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a forecast covering what they expect for the economy and housing market in the months ahead. In February, the group’s outlook is optimistic. In fact, according to their forecast, they expect housing activity to pick up as the year goes on, with lower mortgage rates and increased housing supply helping to make home buying more affordable. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says it depends a lot on the economy. “Right now, our base case scenario foresees economic growth decelerating, rates gradually declining, and new single-family home sales slowly recovering as construction adds supply,” Duncan said. “However, if economic growth continues to surprise on the upside, then we believe the risk of mortgage rates remaining higher for longer will increase.” Duncan says conditions remain hard to predict as the traditional relationship between housing and the larger economy has been upturned post-pandemic. (source)
